How political scientists accurately predicted Trump’s win

Good Morning, I’m Debbie Cruz. It’s Thursday, December 12th.

Political scientists across the country accurately predicted Trump’s win.

We hear from a local professor about how they did it. But first, let’s do the headlines.

The City of Vista is stepping in to help the families being evicted from an affordable RV community on Green Oak Ranch.

Fair Housing attorneys for the city issued a letter saying the eviction notices residents received were invalid under California’s Tenant Protection Act.

Vista Deputy Mayor, Katie Melendez says evictions are happening throughout the city and displacing families.

“This has happened before. This isn't the first time that the City of Vista has had to step in and help tenants and defend tenants. We don't know what the response will be from this landlord, but right now it looks like the tenants have a little bit more time.”

Green Oak Ranch Ministries says that because they are a religious organization, they are exempt from the tenant protection act. They say their attorneys will be responding to the city.

The city of San Diego and SeaWorld have settled a lawsuit on SeaWorld’s missed rent.

City officials alleged the park failed to pay more than $12.2 million in rent, late fees and interest between 2019 and 2022.

SeaWorld argued the payments were waived because the theme park was forced to shut down during the coronavirus pandemic.

The park will be paying $8.5 million to the city, as well as providing a few perks for locals.

Those include: Complimentary season passes to San Diego teachers on an annual basis for five years.

One free admission each year to active duty military and veterans for five years.

And, 1,000 SeaWorld admission tickets that the city will give to local school districts.

Syracuse and Washington State football are coming to San Diego for the 2024 DirecTV Holiday Bowl.

This is the first time the city's biggest annual college football game will be held at Snapdragon Stadium

It was held at Petco Park the previous two years.

This will be Syracuse’s first Holiday Bowl appearance and Washington State’s fifth. The two teams haven't played each other since 1979, when Syracuse won 52 to 25.

The showdown is coming up December 27 at 5 p.m. and will be broadcast on Fox. Tickets start at $66.

From KPBS, you’re listening to San Diego News Now. Stay with me for more of the local news you need.

Kamala Harris voters might still feel shell shocked over the election results, even though polls were consistently tight. Amita Sharma reports one group that was likely unsurprised about Donald Trump’s win was a group of American political scientists.

Key polls on the presidential race, from FiveThirtyEight to the Cook Political Report, gave Vice President Kamala Harris a slight edge over President-elect Donald Trump in November. But modeling by political scientists across the country – accurately predicted Trump’s win, including the popular vote…a month before the election.The models used basic factors such as people’s perceptions of the economy, whether the country is on the right track and if the incumbent administration is headed in the right direction. UCSD political scientist Thad Kousser. “Election results are, are relatively predictable by, is the economy getting better? If it is, people reward the incumbent party.” Despite predicting the tightness of the presidential race, popular polls have repeatedly underestimated Trump’s support among voters. “Republicans may be less likely to pick up that phone, less likely to be as forthcoming about their views.” Kousser says pollsters have to figure out how to reach Democrats and Republican voters in equal numbers, and predict which party will actually cast ballots. Amita Sharma, KPBS News.

San Diego County’s nuclear power plant, San Onofre, was closed more than ten years ago. And there’s only one left in the state. Sci-Tech reporter Thomas Fudge says critics say it’s producing too much power at too high a cost.

The Diablo Canyon nuclear plant was supposed to be closed by the end of next year. But a state bill passed two years ago has kept its two reactors open another five years. The plant generates nearly ten percent of California’s total energy. But critics say it’s actually giving the state too much energy, especially in the spring when we have hydropower. Richard McCann, with the consulting firm M-Cubed, says that was very clear in 2023 after California’s wet winter. “That combination made it so that we had a lot of excess power in the system. And the biggest culprit for that excess power is Diablo Canyon” Also, McCann says nuclear power from Diablo Canyon is expensive. PG&E is applying to raise the cost of keeping the plant open, and that will affect San Diego rate payers as well. Thomas Fudge, KPBS news.  

We are learning more about how too much social media use can affect people’s mental health.

As North County Reporter Alexander Nguyen tells us, a recent study says it’s affecting young men in unexpected ways.

Jon Lim is a firefighter in Encinitas. He is in the gym for an early workout session before work. His physique is like that of some fitness models on Instagram … but he says … don’t believe everything you see. “They take a hundred pictures to post that one perfect one.” A recent Australian study shows that social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram are fueling young men with unhealthy … and often … unrealistic obsession with lean physiques. “What they see is that Instagram model, the guy in the gym that’s on whatever stuff he’s on looking all jacked. They want to implement that. They want to compare themselves to that image. And that’s where this whole mental illness thing begins.” The study’s authors say a way to combat body dysmorphia is to unplug from social media and to invest more in mental health initiatives for men. Alexander Nguyen, KPBS News.

Most seniors stop driving or limit where they drive by their 80’s. That’s according to research published in Springer Nature. Health reporter Heidi de Marco says a local ride-share program helps seniors get to their medical appointments. But they are struggling to recruit volunteer drivers.

“I'm Marion Yurow. I'm 88 years old. I'm married to doctor Harvey Yurow who's 92. And, we've been living in San Diego for almost 23 years.” She is a retired teacher and he was a chemist for the Department of Defense. As they age, they're facing new challenges. “Well he's had a heart attack so he has to see his cardiologist. I've had, you know, surgery on my eyes. As we're getting older, we're needing more and more doctors appointments, unfortunately.” She says long drives and navigating parking structures are too difficult.  As many as 1 in 4 seniors skip medical care. That’s according to a 20-24 survey by Alignment Health. The reason most people gave is  transportation access. “Because Harvey was getting limited in his driving and I don't drive anymore. We just we didn't know what to do. There is the Lyft and Uber, but that gets pretty expensive, I happened to find out about On the Go.” On the Go is a transportation program run by the non profit Jewish Family Service for adults 60 and older. Sunni Robertson directs their volunteer and community engagement. She says they pick up riders throughout San Diego County. “We have many older adults who are wanting to stay living independently in their homes, but because they can no longer drive to their medical appointments or to the grocery store, they're having a harder time maintaining that independence.” A UC Davis Health study suggests health providers ask patients about transportation insecurity. Robertson says seniors hesitate asking for help from family and friends to avoid feeling like a burden. “And so they would hold off on asking for that assistance, but then their own health would be failing because maybe they weren't getting to the store as often or getting to the doctor when they needed to. So this is really a lifeline for those folks who live their most optimal, healthy, thriving lives.” Research from Columbia University shows when older adults stop driving, their risk of depression nearly doubles. Robertson explains these rides help combat this issue. “They really are that warmth and that connection to someone else that day as well. So we do worry that sometimes older adults become isolated as well.” The program is free and enrollment is old school. Ride requests are processed over the phone, not online. “Honestly, I'm just not computer literate. I can use the cell phone, but somehow the Lyft and the Uber and everything, it got to be a little much for me.” But the program needs more volunteers. There are 1,500 riders currently enrolled, but only 150 active volunteers. Robertson says they’ve had to prioritize medical rides, which make up 75% of all trips. “So we are definitely seeing the need for the service outpacing available volunteers and one of the reasons we think is that we know folks' lives are busy and they think, oh, I can't fit this into my schedule. But really, you know, all that we're asking for is that volunteers give 1 to 2 rides per month.” Jewish family service trains volunteers, reimburses them for mileage and pays for secondary insurance. There’s a waitlist for new riders. And current members are allowed up to 8 one-way rides per month, plus medical appointments. “What I kind of get the feeling from people is they're afraid to have strangers in their car.” Marcia Fernando has been volunteering for 12 years. “But they're beautiful people. And if you sit back for a moment and think, what if I couldn't drive anymore? What if I couldn't drive? You'd be devastated. And so here you are, giving somebody a gift that's priceless.” Today, Marcia is driving the Yurows to the eye doctor. “Good morning! How are you?” “That is so humbling to me. That they trust me and maybe they don’t have choice, but I want to take extra good care of them and make them super comfortable because they are getting in a car of a person they don’t even know.” “And you moved here from New York? No, we actually moved here from Maryland.” “But, over the years, we've met some wonderful people. And as they say, I don't know what we would do. And of course, eventually Harvey won't be driving and then we really will have a problem.” “Thanks, Marcia. Take care. Have a wonderful holiday season. I will.” Marion says that these rides aren't just about getting from one place to another. They’re a chance to remain connected to the community, maintain independence and avoid isolation. Heidi de Marco, KPBS News.

That’s it for the podcast today. As always you can find more San Diego news online at KPBS dot org.

For your next listen, make sure to check out the Midday Edition podcast for their weekly arts and culture show. They’ll look ahead to what’s happening in the arts over the weekend.

I’m Debbie Cruz. Thanks for listening and have a great Thursday.