Bonus Episode: What can the border community expect from a second Trump term

S1: The opinions or views expressed in today's episode are solely of those who express them and do not reflect those of Port of Entry or KPBS. Listener discretion is advised.

S2: Hi folks who heard this here producer port of entry , and we want to finish this third bonus episode in a row before we return to our season lineup. If you've been keeping up with the news , we are set to go through a second Trump term.

S3:

S4: Tell me why you come to America. I'm a Canadian. I want to understand that.

S5: Back to you.

S6: We're going to fix our borders. We're going to fix everything about our country. That's why , to keep our families safe , the Republican platform promises to launch the largest deportation operation in the history of our country. Even larger than that of President Dwight Eisenhower. If they don't stop this onslaught of criminals and drugs coming into our country , I'm going to immediately impose a 25% tariff on everything they send in to the United States of America.

S2: With me is our host , Natalie Gonzalez , who just welcomed the next generation in her family. Congrats , Natalie , on being an aunt.

S1: Thank you.

S2: And Allen , who is yet to introduce another generation of interns.

S7: Working on it. We'll see.

S2: Help us understand what to expect from a second Trump term. We have a very special guest with us. KPBS investigative border reporter Gustavo Solis. Hola.

S1: Hello ? Yes.

S8: I should say my my brother had a kid a few months ago. So , really , a.

S1: Lot of new babies.

S2: Regards to your.

S8: Your brother and his kid's name is also George. So. Hello , Georgie. Yolanda.

S9: Yolanda.

S1: The KPBS member pool is expanding.

S2: Before we continue with the questions with Gustavo Chico's , please help us introduce the program.

S1: From KPBS. This is Port of Entry.

S9: Where we tell Crossborder stories that connect. Us.

S1: Us. I'm Alan Lilienthal and.

S9: I'm Natalia Gonzalez. You are listening to Port of Entry.

S1: Since his victory , president elect Donald Trump has made various declarations threatening that if Mexico doesn't stop the flow of migrants or drugs northbound , he'll impose a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico. That news.

S9: Along with his plan to use the military to carry out mass deportations of millions of undocumented migrants.

S1: Has worried many in the border community.

S9: We wondered how the news of his reelection was received by border commuters , those who could be directly affected. So we sent our producer , Julio to the field to capture the perspectives and emotions that the border.

S1: Most of the folks we interviewed prefer to omit their last names.

S9: Carlos , a taxi driver , noted that any disruption of cross-border traffic would affect him.

S3: Trabajo de la calle. Lo mismo Como todo. Lo siento. Victor.

S1: Joseph , a disabled truck driver , was confident the border will never be shut down. Maybe temporarily , like for a few days or weeks , if it even comes to that.

S10: No no no don't. Porque es estar porque es entrar no creo.

S9: There's just too much money at play to shut it down.

S1: He says a few people expressed concern that border traffic could experience a slowdown if Trump's policies are enacted.

S9: One of them was Gail , a college student.

S11: Support del flujo frontera por el proceso mas lento o I am a rigorous edad tendra dala mas attention algo para me puede ser positivo.

S9: Gail believes there are pros and cons.

S1: A pro being that the border might be more secure with more officers on the field checking all inbound vehicles and pedestrians. But on the other hand.

S11: Negativo pensando en Los Altos tengan para cruzar pensando in Canada , no secretario para las personas pueden cruzar.

S1: That could also mean a longer wait time for him.

S12: Pues no se Nikki pensar porque tantas amenaza hizo subir Los Angeles y eso entonces vamos a hacer eso se VA Todo Tijuana.

S1: Pero pues. For Socorro Veloz , it might mean that if they suggested terrorists on Mexican goods go through , that may impact the cost of living in the region.

S9: You know , if everyday goods are less affordable for San Diegans , that may push more people to Tijuana driving prices up there.

S12: Pero pues haber qué pasa.

S13: I sido positivo negativo para.

S12: Hacer igual la otra vez. Menos a muchos a lo mejor si les politico. I mean no pero igual no sé.

S1: While she says she won't be affected by the crackdown on undocumented immigrants , folks like Salvador , a body shop artist , are a bit more worried.

S14: Esto tengo Como medio ano mirando todo haciendo porque afecta mucha familia mia. You know the immigrants. I'm a U.S. citizen. So I think the problem is familia de todo esto.

S9: Salvador is a member of a mixed status family. Although he is a U.S. citizen , he feels family members who aren't are at risk of deportation.

S14: Es muy diferente. Estaba haciendo Biden a comparado muy , muy diferente.

S1: Salvador carries in lingering fear of the uncertainty ahead , but others , like Evancho , are confident it will be just another day in Tijuana.

S15: Si puede afectar Como otros anos de estamos a Tijuana , pues todas las Mandan para después de eventos.

S1: A vendor at the San Ysidro Port of Entry , he says there might be an uptick in deportees with the new administration , but that's happened before and Tijuana always finds a way to overcome the situation.

S9: Even becoming the home of all new arrivals like it has over the last decades.

S15: Donde esta Los migrantes. Aqui todo eso. Pero ya esta uno de eso. Pero no chrissake tanto simplemente si te VA victor mucho en la gente esta por cosas. No reporter pero siempre video deportations.

S9: Overall the reactions and attitudes were mixed.

S1: Some take these policy threats very seriously , as they remember similar calls to shut down the border in Trump's first term. And while the threat itself isn't new , it's renewed focus feels even more alarming now.

S9: And others feel like it is just another day on the border.

S1: Port of entry will be back after a short break.

S9: You're listening to Port of Entry.

S2: We are with KPBS border reporter Gustavo Solis. Gustavo , thank you again for being here. Before we go into our questions , tell the audience a little bit about yourself and your experience covering the border for the past few years.

S8: Yeah , sure. Well , my name is Gustavo. Um , I was born in Mexico City , but grew up here in San Diego. My family moved here when I was in second grade , so I spent most of my life here in San Diego until high school. I spent ten years in the East Coast , um , for school , and I started my journalism career over there. And actually I started covering immigration in 2016. So my immigration career kind of coincides Trump's rise to power and all of the the policies and issues he's brought to the forefront.

S2: Guys , take it away with the questions.

S1: Thank you.

S8: No , I kind of not lucked into it. It was just kind of by chance , I started my career in New York. My first job title was Crime and Mayhem. Reporter okay , for a small website. It was cool. Okay. It was a cool way to get to know the town. So I would everyday jump on the subway from , you know , a shooting in the Bronx , the fire in Brooklyn , um , of some press conference in Queens , just always kind of hustling from crime scene to crime scene.

S1: Crime and.

S8: Mayhem , crime and mayhem. Reporter. Yeah. For a website that doesn't exist anymore , the owner shut it down after we tried to form a union.

S1: So it's sort of , uh , Spiderman and Batman were really. You would be right there with them a.

S8: Little a little smaller. Yeah , but that was like the old school track of journalism , right ? You start covering crime and then you move up to , like , a geographic bead or something smaller. I covered the neighborhood of Harlem and East Harlem. I would do a lot of housing stuff. You know , there were a lot of slumlords up there , a lot of issues with public housing not being fully funded. And then I got to a point in New York where I knew I wanted to move to the next step , which is a more specialized beat. And there was this opportunity to work in Palm Springs for The Desert Sun , which is a Gannett paper. Uh , Gannett is the company that owns USA today. So it was a cool opportunity given to a young reporter to cover immigration in Southern California and have a national platform , because USA today would pick up a lot of the stories. So that's kind of how I got into it.

S1: That's cool. So it just so happened to coincide with your roots and your past and kind of tie it all together.

S8: Yeah , it was nice. I mean , in New York , I was the only guy that spoke Spanish in the newsroom. Um , and so I saw how valuable that is , like interviewing , like helping other people with their interviews , especially covering a lot of the , the slumlord issues , like , most of the tenants were immigrants who didn't really speak anything other than Spanish. So it gave me a foot in the door. It kind of loosely tied with immigration , but I knew I wanted to come to California , and I it was a great way to do it right. Covering , uh , something I experienced a little bit myself as an immigrant , but in a community that I grew up in Southern California. Mhm.

S1: All right. Let's get to Donald Trump.

S9: Let's get let's get to the story. Um , Gustavo , first question.

S8: I mean , it will. We all know it will in a lot of different ways. I think it depends who you ask and what your focus is. Right ? I know some folks over at the Chamber of Commerce might be worried about tariffs and what that might mean. Um , from the immigration standpoint , I mean , San Diego has been one of the the most used places , right ? In all the border sectors along the southern border of San Diego has been one of the most active ones in terms of people crossing illegally. Um , I think historically , San Diego is a really interesting place along the border because it is one of the kind of testing grounds for border enforcement. We were one of the first places that got a border wall back in the Clinton years. We have two border walls now. A lot of the technology used , uh , is used in San Diego first and then exported throughout the border , like different surveillance technologies , uh , different policies like Remain in Mexico and title 42 are kind of tried a little bit in San Diego and then taken elsewhere. If you remember the first Trump administration when they were building the new border wall , all the prototypes are here. You would go down to Otay Mesa and you could see all the different types of walls. So from that perspective , I think San Diego is in an interesting place to see what the new administration will , will look like. Hmm.

S16: Hmm. Yeah. Because.

S1: I mean , politicians say a lot of things , and you never really know what percentage of that will actually get enacted and done. However , there is obviously a lot of anxiety , especially like our audience happens to be , you know , a lot of mixed families. Some people might have undocumented family members who work here. Uh , what do you. Think.

S16: Think.

S1:

S8: People are stressed out. People are afraid , they're anxious. And that is by design , right ? Trump like the rhetoric and the people he has appointed , like Tom Homan and Stephen Miller , are hard liners. So just the fear itself. You can expect to see more of an increase in anxiety and stress. Actually , for KPBS , I just wrote a story talking to a therapist who specializes in talking to undocumented folks. So that's an initial impact. I know there are folks in Tijuana that they shouldn't do this , but they cross every day on , uh , tourist or border visas and they cross to work. Uh , there might be more enforcement on that side. So we could could potentially fall an impact to that in terms of undocumented folks and mixed status , I think one of the Most immediate things that the Trump administration can do , which is something he did. The first go around is eliminate the ISIS priority for who they go after , right ? So I have these priorities under Obama and under Biden that says , you know , we recognize that there are , you know , between 10 and 20 million undocumented people in the country. There's a limited number of Ice agents. We're not going to arrest everyone like that. That's that's kind of ridiculous. Like the just the ratio , the the logistics , the feasibility. It can't be done. So what do you do ? You create this priority that says , we're going to go after people who have criminal convictions and already have orders of removal. That narrows the scope. So we can just focus on them and be a little bit more efficient without destabilizing communities. During the first Trump term , one of the things he did was the zero tolerance , and he removed that priority. And that's when you saw all of the collateral arrests , collateral deportations , right ? So they would go to one house where they had one target who did have a criminal record , but that person was living with , you know , a couple other families. So they would see that his uncle and grandma and niece were also in the country illegally. Now , they didn't have criminal records , they had jobs. They had been paying their taxes , but they're still fair game because of their lack of status. So we saw that during the first Trump term. That's something that could return. I will say being in California , there are some protections from from some of the sanctuary policies that were passed during the first term. Right. Local law enforcement is limited in how they can help Ice deport people where not. They're not allowed to ask anyone for their immigration status. They're not allowed to tell Ice where people live or whether someone was arrested or anything like that. So that is something that people listening can kind of take as a sign of comfort. At least they have some protections that Uh , folks in Arizona and Texas may not have , unfortunately. And I think one of the big things about mass deportation is that it sounds great. It sounds simple. You can put in a bumper sticker. There are very real logistical challenges to mass deportation , right ? One is just the money. It takes a lot of money to detain people , uh , to fly all those airplanes. Like the federal government spends millions and millions of dollars chartering private flights for deportations. Um , there's only so many beds in detention centers , right ? So if they're at capacity , where do you put them ? That's another logistical challenge. You have to open up another facility or rent one out. It's a lot harder to deport somebody than people think. And I think those logistics are going to get in the way of of Trump's mission.

S2: There's like a due process issue , not having enough judges enough. Well , there's.

S8: That lawyer in immigration court. Yeah. If you don't have I mean , for folks who are in the country without status but don't have orders of removal yet. You can't just deport them , you have to detain them. They have to go through process of immigration court. And right now there's a multi-million case backlog in immigration court. So it takes a long time. They would have to either find a way to remove those due process protections or hire a lot of immigration judges and and speed up that process.

S1: And they're talking about slashing a lot of federal employees. Yeah.

S16: Yeah. So it's like it's kind of.

S1: Counterintuitive and contradictory. Yeah.

S8: Yeah. I mean , they can do a lot and they're saying a lot. I think it's I'm curious to see how it starts playing out. Mhm. Yeah.

S17: From the what we.

S2: Saw previously in the previous administration , the first term , what do you think might just happen. That might be a little bit different if you compare it from from the first term.

S8: Um I think for context it's important to know , like some things that Trump can just do through executive order. Other things , he's limited by the law. Congress would have to pass something , or the Supreme Court would have to approve it , and there would be legal challenges , um , from states or individuals. Another limitation is lack of funding. You know , and the other one would be just approval from different state or even other governments. Right. Like one of the things they want to do is bring back remain in Mexico , which is a very controversial policy. It forced anyone going through asylum. You had to be in Mexico until that case was adjudicated , and it would take months and months and months to adjudicate those cases. It was very controversial because our federal government was forcing asylum seekers who are , by definition , some of the most vulnerable people in the world to live in border cities , some of which were on the , you know , Department of State do not travel list because they were so dangerous. The problems were that a attorneys from the US had a hard time getting them. So there were a lot of issues with people just not having legal representation and losing their case , not because they didn't have a good case , but they don't have a lot of degrees to to fight and advocate for themselves. The other one , I think , is the most controversial aspect of this policy is that Human Rights first documented hundreds of cases of people who had valid asylum claims , who were forced to wait in Mexico , and while they were in Mexico , they were beaten , robbed , sexually assaulted , kidnapped. A couple people died. So yeah , it's a deterrent. It's supposed to stop people from filing , um , illegitimate asylum claims. But it also put a lot of people in harm's way. Yeah. And that if you're looking at it for now , you can only do that if Mexico allows you to do that. Right. Trump pressured Amlo. Let's go around with with tariffs. And Amlo said , okay , sure , you can do it. I don't know how the new president will do it. I don't know what the appetite for something like that is , but it's a policy that is 100% dependent on Mexico's. Yeah , it seems light.

S2: Last thing I heard is , yes , he's thinking of imposing a 25% tariff if Mexico does not stop the flow of drugs or the flow of immigration and just squash it. Yeah.

S8: Yeah. I mean , I think some of his business buddies would not like that. Yeah. Yeah.

S1: Yeah. I mean , we focus a lot on Trump , but have you have can you maybe education a little bit on what Claudia shame bombs position has been through all of this I haven't really kept up with since Trump was elected. What Mexico's response has been to all these claims that Trump makes because , as you said , you need two people to tango like you. You need them to to cooperate for him , for half his , his agenda to even be enacted.

S8: I'm curious to see how they respond. Right. A Shane Bond has continued , amigos practice of helping the US with immigration enforcement in Mexico , and that actually earlier this year led to a decline in apprehensions at our border. Right. We saw a couple of years of record highs. They went down and it coincided with immigration stops going up in Mexico. It basically just expands our border into there. Um , we'll see how that goes. I know both administrations , like the previous and the current one in Mexico , are very reluctant to do the bidding of the US. Like politically , it's not a good look for them. Right ? I mean , Amlo famously didn't even speak English. Um , some kind of curious to see how that plays out. But it is a political conversation to be had. I think for Lopez Obrador , the calculation was , look , Trump and Biden , I'll help you with immigration issues , but get off my back on domestic policy. Let me kind of do whatever I want in that regard. I don't know if Sheinbaum wants to make a similar a negotiation or what that would look like. So I'm very , very curious to see what what happens in that front. Mhm.

S18: Mhm.

S9: And also you will you already mentioned this that you recently actually this week you published a story about um therapists working with migrants to ease anxiety. But you also recently published , well , last week , I think , a story about , um , migrant advocates that are mobilizing in the wake of , you know , oh , election. So and actually , we have the story available in Spanish to , uh , what measures are these advocates ? Advocates are starting to take ahead right.

S8: Now is just planning , like getting ready. A lot of these folks are the same people like they were around in 2016. So they kind of know what what strategies they can take. A lot of it plays out in in the courts , right. Trump will try to implement a policy like Remain in Mexico or Title 42. Groups like the ACLU will sue them to try to prevent that from happening at all. Right. So it would look like that some states would push back as well. Um , so it happens at the federal level with those lawsuits , but also at the state level. I know Governor Gavin Newsom is calling a special session in December to try to do some things that will limit the impact that Trump policies could have on California and at the local level , advocates are already I'm actually working on a story right now about people disappointed with Mayor Todd Gloria , who has kind of not really said anything about immigration. He kind of shies away from it. He doesn't really answer questions about immigration , and they feel that they're not supported. They actually point to the fact that the mayor defunded the Office of Immigrant Affairs this year. And now it's like , like , dude , you defunded this office less than a year before Trump comes back. What message does that send to the immigrant community ? Right. Okay.

S9: Okay. That's stories coming.

S8: Hopefully next week okay.

S9: Hopefully we'll drop it at the same time.

S1: To finish off this this interview. Gustavo , I'm curious , uh , speaking about the economy , obviously , Trump , Trump's biggest running points were the economy and immigration. Um , and and I'm curious how San Diego in particular , is so reliant on the immigrant community for so much of the economy , legal and illegal immigrants who people who cross the border every day to come to work. So obviously slowing that will slow the economy in America. Um , but Trump also promises to to increase American jobs and all this stuff and all the promises that he's made. How how do you see it playing out in terms of the costs that you mentioned earlier to for deportations and to round people up to hire more Ice officers ? Like so costs are going to increase , their costs are going to uh , profits are going to decrease if there's less immigrants in San Diego in particular. So how. How.

S16: How.

S1:

S8: Well , and that's a lot of the , the underlying framing of some of these policies. Right. Like mass deportation is being framed as a , a policy that will increase public safety. Right. It doesn't the the data doesn't back it up right here in San Diego. It is true that we saw a record number of people crossing illegally in the last year. It's also true that during that last year , crime went down. And if there was a link and several studies have shown that there's no real direct link , at least not the one that's being put out there , that more illegal migration causes more crime. Um , studies actually showed the opposite right out of there's really good data out of Texas showing that immigrants , those in the country legally and illegally , are less likely to commit crime than people born in the US. Mhm. Um , so yeah , it doesn't math. It doesn't make sense. That's because the , the the rhetoric is separated from the reality on the ground when it comes to the economy. Yeah. It is a little counterintuitive to deport a lot of undocumented people who are contributing members of the workforce. I know here in California. Undocumented workers contribute something like 3 billion in state and local taxes every year , $3 billion , and they're overrepresented in certain economies. Sorry , they're overrepresented in certain industries construction , agriculture , food and service , like here in San Diego. Those are three pretty big industries. And if you lose a significant portion , even just like 5 to 10% of that workforce in those like industries , it would have a really , really bad impact on the economy.

S2: Gustavo , thank you so much for helping us out. Yeah.

S8: Yeah. No. Yeah. No problem. Sorry to ramble , but yeah. No , no.

S7: That was that was insightful. Very.

S9: The impact of Trump's policies is still unclear , but if the past is any lesson , the broader community needs to stay informed and vigilant. This episode of Port of Entry was written produced by Julio Cesar Ortiz Franko.

S1: Adrian Villalobos technical producer and sound designer. This episode was edited by Elena Gonzalez , Lima Brandao and Melissa Sandoval.

S9: Lisa morrissette is director of audio programming and operations.

S1: This program is made possible in part by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting , a private corporation funded by the American people.

S9: This project was also made possible with support from California Humanities , a nonprofit partner of the National Endowment for the Humanities. Visit Call home. Org.

S1: I'm Alan Lilienthal.

S9: And I'm Natalia Gonzalez. Nos vemos pronto.