S1: Welcome in San Diego , it's Jade Hindman. Today we are talking about the role panda diplomacy plays in U.S. China relations and about the tensions. This is midday Edition connecting our communities through conversation. For years , China has used giant pandas as a diplomatic tool to build better relations with other countries the U.S. especially. But last November , the National Zoo in Washington , D.C. , returned its last three pandas to China. That same month , Chinese President XI Jinping said at a summit in San Francisco that the bears might soon return to American zoos. But the new year could present even more challenges to the already tense relationship between the U.S. and China. In a New Year's Eve address , XI Jinping re-emphasized his intention to reunify China with Taiwan , a process he described as inevitable. Susan Shirk is a professor at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy , and founding chair of the 21st Century China Center. Her most recent book , Overreach How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise , Looks at China's role in the World stage. She sat down with Midday Edition producer Andrew Bracken to talk about what exactly Panda Diplomacy is , and the broader picture of US-China relations.
S2: You know , many people have heard about the pandas leaving zoos like San Diego Zoo a few years ago , but they may not be familiar with this term Panda diplomacy.
S3: The ice was broken by this historic visit of Richard Nixon and his wife , Pat Nixon , in February of 1972. And during that visit , President Nixon gave two musk oxen to China , and the Chinese side promised to pandas to the first lady , Pat Nixon , who then in turn gave them to the nationals who in Washington , D.C.. So ever since then , although musk oxen , I don't think have become important symbols of the relationship in China , in the United States and other countries , pandas have become symbol of the friendship between China and other countries.
S2: China eventually went from gifting pandas to loaning them to zoos around the world. I think , as you mentioned , including those in the United States that started in the 1980s , in recent years , China has been letting those loans to the U.S. run their course rather than extending them.
S3: But what I suspect is that the panda experts in China are very keen on their cooperation with panda experts at places like the San Diego Zoo. And , of course , the San Diego Zoo has been one of the most successful at encouraging , through diet and other scientific methods , the pandas to mate and to produce new baby pandas , which is not an easy thing to do. So I think the scientists all want to continue to work together , but especially under the XI Jinping leadership , there's a lot more suspicion of the intentions of the United States and other Western governments. And so the Chinese are kind of using the pandas politically to exert leverage on the United States to make its own compromises and to try to improve relations so that the scientific experts can't get the political green light to continue the leases. I believe they want to. And now , with the statement by President XI Jinping at the meeting in San Francisco , they feel that they have gotten that political green light , which , of course , will produce improvements in goodwill on the part of Americans , because there they will be very happy to see the pandas return , and that will generate more friendly feelings. Although , I mean , let's not kid ourselves. There are a lot of. Big economic and security issues of contention between the United States and China. And the pandas are not going to solve all , all our problems.
S2:
S3: Uh , there's more anti-Americanism in China now than there has ever been in the , you know , almost 50 years that I've been going to China. And certainly anti-Chinese sentiment is higher in the United States , and it's ever been before. So these social attitudes , people to people , sentiments people to people , relationships really can be very important. It's not going to solve all our problems , but it helps break down hostile feelings , which can really , uh , become frozen and be very difficult to change.
S2: And on some of those , you know , hostile feelings , 2023 did bring on some growing tensions between the United States and China. There was some incidents with the the surveillance balloons that we had you on Midday Edition talking about that. I mean , looking back on that now , I think recently they found more surveillance balloons over Taiwan , recently in the run up to their presidential election.
S3: And XI Jinping was very unhappy about it. So it showed that even in the system with highly concentrated power in the hands of XI Jinping , he can't know about or control everything. What we did , of course , is blow up the balloon. And , uh , we also canceled a very important diplomatic meeting that was planned for our secretary of state to go to China. So the the spy balloon interrupted an effort that the two sides were making to try to restore diplomatic communication. So that was really very unfortunate. So I think , um , the spy balloons just again , one incident. But what's more concerning. So , um , China , for many decades after Mao died , Deng Xiaoping came in. It acted in a manner to try to reassure the United States and its neighbors that even though it was a rising power growing stronger , its intentions were friendly. But that type of reassuring behavior , uh , has changed over the last decade or so , and especially under XI Jinping , so that now , you know it's a rising power. But its intentions appear to be ambiguous , more ambitious , but also more willing to take risks and use military and economic pressure to achieve these ambitions.
S2: And according to reports from NBC news , President XI also warned Biden during that same summit that China will be looking to reunify with Taiwan. This comes ahead of Taiwan's presidential election in January.
S3: We made some compromises. We accepted the idea that the status of Taiwan was ambiguous. We try to insist that the mainland whatever. They would do would never use force against Taiwan. We passed the Taiwan Relations Act that says if the mainland does use force , that we will consider that a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific. The white House will consult with Congress on how to respond. So we have been a good friend of Taiwan's and have done what we could do to maintain a peaceful Taiwan Strait and prevent the mainland from using force against Taiwan. But our position is that whatever the people on the mainland and Taiwan can work out between themselves peacefully will be okay with us. So when XI Jinping says to Biden that the goal , his goal and the goal of the Chinese government is to achieve the reunification of Taiwan , that's a position that Chinese leaders have taken ever since Mao. There's nothing new about that. They have been saying that consistently. And the fact that he said they hope to do it peacefully , that's a positive thing. But we worry because we are ensure that XI Jinping and people in China might grow impatient and try to use military force to accelerate the process.
S2: China's economy has seen some incredible growth over the past few decades , but it has run into problems over the last few years , maybe around since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. We've heard about problems in commercial real estate , for example. Other sectors , employment.
S3: Many people believe that the dynamism of the Chinese economy , which was produced by the introduction of market reforms and opening to the world economy , has slowed down , not just because of structural issues like demography. The fact that China's working age population is a smaller share now , and it has an ageing society , but also because of policy mistakes that XI Jinping's regime has made , including cracking down on private business and strengthening the state's role in the economy. So , um , there are a lot of. Foreign investors and companies that are seeing a lot more political risk in China and are worried that the economy is going to continue to slow down. Productivity has slowed. Debt is high. And even though there are many excellent economic officials in China who have some good ideas for how to revive the economy , XI Jinping seems more interested in exerting control , political control over society than in stimulating economic dynamism. My own view is that this diversionary war idea hasn't been true in China in the past , and in fact , we don't find this pattern being very prevalent in other countries. So my own hunch is that China's domestic problems are going to motivate even XI Jinping to concentrate more on addressing the domestic problems. It will not make them more of a threat than they were before.
S2: And during a previous interview you did with us on midday. You had said the relations between the US and China had become , quote , dangerously adversarial.
S3: But we need a lot more. I believe that we can accomplish the stabilization of relations between the two countries by a combination of carrots and sticks , by engaging in more intensive diplomacy , in which we may use sanctions or tariffs , but we use them in a very targeted manner. We say to the Chinese side , you know , we really don't like the way you're pushing the Philippines around in the South China Sea. You're violating international law. Philippines is our ally. And , you know , if you don't moderate your policies , we're going to have to impose some sanctions on you and use the sanctions to try to incentivize China to change the way it acts.
S2: And finally , you know , would you like to see the pandas back in the San Diego Zoo ? Absolutely.
S4:
S3: And so would my grandchildren. And I think everybody would like to see the pandas coming back. And I think it would be good for the improved knowledge of how to raise pandas , you know. Um , really , it's it's just another form of scientific collaboration. And we want to maintain a decent relationship between the Chinese people and the American people because , uh , cooperation between us on everything from raising pandas to finding cures for Covid and other diseases to addressing climate change really requires cooperation between our two societies. So , you know , I think everyone will be encouraged if we see the pandas return to the San Diego Zoo.
S1: That was Midday Edition producer Andrew Brackins , speaking with Susan Shirk , professor at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy and author of the book Overreach How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise.
