The state of EVs in California today

S1: It's time for Midday Edition on Kpbs. Hey , if you don't already drive one , what's keeping you from getting an electric vehicle ? We'll talk about the challenges. I'm Jade Hindman. Here's to conversations that keep you informed , inspired , and make you think. Researchers emphasize why parking , gas , cars and moving to electric vehicles is so important to emissions goals.

S2: The number one option for reduction from any other policy we have is electrifying our light duty vehicles.

S1: But are people buying electric vehicles at the rate they should ? And how available are charging stations across San Diego County ? We'll have answers ahead on Midday Edition. The number of electric vehicles on California's roads have increased dramatically over the past few years , but EV sales declined in the second half of last year , leading to concerns about the state's long term move towards an electrical future. So how is California doing in its transition to electric vehicles and its overall climate goals ? And what do consumers considering an EV need to know ? Jay Kim and Gil Tall are scholars on the matter , and they're here to answer those questions. Jay is an associate professor of industrial and systems engineering at the University of San Diego. Jay , welcome.

S3: Thank you for having me.

S1: Glad to have you here. And Gil is professor and director of the Electric Vehicle Research Center at UC Davis. Gil , welcome to you , too.

S2: Thank you. Thank you for having me.

S1: Glad to have you both here. So first question.

S3: First of all , I don't think it's just the EV market itself , the overall car market. I think you're facing headwinds. Inflation and higher interest rates are definitely hurting consumers. So people are a lot more hesitant to make the purchase. This is probably , for most consumers , the second biggest purchase after home. So it's a big , big decision. So the EV market is facing the same issue with , you know , higher prices , higher interest rates. And , you know , also if you kind of consider what's happened in the last year , the market's been basically on fire. I mean , it's been you know , growth has been really , really high. But now we're transitioning from early adopters to mainstream adopters. So as you make that transition , we're going to run into more issues because the mainstream adopters are going to have a lot more basically barriers. So it's it's only natural we're seeing right now as we see this slowdown.

S1: Smooth transition was wishful thinking , huh ? Okay. Um , Gil.

S2: Uh , well , I think that the decline is a more rumor than a real decline. If we look , we should not look at one month or a quarter , but look at 20 , 23 , 22 and how things change. The most popular passenger car in California is the Tesla model three. 15% of the market. The most popular light truck in California by far is the model Y. And other electric cars are up there. Uh , at the top. I think that , um , we like to kind of see this small percent reduction as a real problem , but the market is growing and growing strong.

S1:

S2: Almost 30% is from transportation. A lot of it is from car travel. It's probably the single like the number one option for reduction from any other policy we have is electrifying our light duty vehicles. Wow.

S1: Wow. In my head , I'm thinking , you know , the farming industry you know that there's opportunity there. But but really it is in our motor vehicles. A question for both of you.

S3: Range anxiety is a lot of it is kind of illogical because most U.S. drivers don't drive. You know , on average , 80% drive fewer than 30 miles in a day. So an EV with , let's say , a 30 mile range , it's more than enough. This fear of like you're going to get stranded somewhere. It's it's it's it doesn't really happen. But at the same time , it's a real fear for a lot of consumers. One of the ways to get over this is visibility. Having a lot of EV chargers available , even if people aren't using them in , you know , large numbers , just having that available alone will help ease this anxiety and help adoption.

S1:

S3: But if you were to , we're gaining momentum. There's a lot of funding available to the Inflation Reduction Act. And I think one of the big changes is the new building codes. Basically for a lot of the new housing , a lot of the new , you know , hotels , motels or commercial buildings , there's basically a mandated requirement that you have certain number of EV charging stations or EV charging ready infrastructure built in. So that's going to help drive adoption.

S1: Jay , do you foresee that people aren't going to really jump into buying an electric vehicle until that happens ? Yeah.

S3: So for a lot of the early adopters , a lot of them have , you know , their own charging station at home , they have access , they have their own garages. So , you know , having a public charging station wasn't probably at the top of their list. But as you move to mainstream consumers who may be living in more higher density housing , having more public charging available is going to be critical because , again , it's going to help them overcome that range anxiety. And also they know that , you know , this technology is available for them. And , you know , they can basically build it into their day , whether they're charging at home or. Are you going to work ? It's going to be available for them wherever they go. So it's going to definitely help drive adoption.

S1: And Gil , what are your thoughts on the availability of charging stations and the impact that may be having on whether or not people buy electric vehicles ? Yeah.

S2: So Jay said most of the charging infrastructure already exists at homes. Uh , most of the cars in California lives in homes that people can plug into their car at home. And then the second place to charge your car is it works , or more than 80% of that will happen while you're doing something else. And it works for most people. Uh , the part that we hear more horror stories is the fast chargers on roads. So when you will do a trip that is more than 300 miles or so , you will need to stop once for charging. And we need way more chargers than what we have today. It's already happening. It's happening fast. There are billions of dollars coming to California from the federal government , from the state , uh , from the energy , the utility companies , from private companies. So we will see many , many more chargers in the next couple of years that that will allow us to do these long trips without too much planning and too much stories that we hear today.

S1:

S2: I think that the first thing you need to know is , can you plug in the car at home , or while you're at home or while you're at work , uh , in a reliable place ? If you don't have a reliable charger , that is your daily charging that , uh , you have a control over the charger , also over the price. Then don't buy electric car yet. Wait for the charger to show up. Wait for the ability to charge. That's the main thing. Now , if you have only one car in your household , you can consider plug in hybrid. So when you run out of charge after 40 or 50 mile driving , you go to a gas and you drive on a hybrid car. And then if you're not driving much or if you're driving too much , it's also not for you. So I think that today , about two thirds of the new car buyers can buy an electric car and benefit from it. But you need to check if you're a part of these two thirds.

S1:

S3: Um , but it needs to grow quickly. If you think of it from an entrepreneurial perspective , if you want to basically build out your own network or charging stations , you need a critical mass of EV drivers out there to make that happen , to make the return on investment worthwhile. So as this adoption grows , it makes it basically makes the economic work out for anyone who's trying to invest in basically charging infrastructure. So once that happens , I think you'll see more activity from the commercial side to see more of these charging station networks grow in California , which then in turn will grow more adoption as people see more charging stations out there.

S1: I'm so glad you brought that up because , see , like right now , if I'm an entrepreneur and I'm looking at investing in that type of infrastructure , I'd be hesitant to do so because I'm thinking , well , there just aren't enough electric vehicles out there. And so it's like , which comes first , the chicken or the egg ? Here , people are hesitant to buy electric vehicles , and then perhaps there are some people who are hesitant to even invest in that type of infrastructure to support it.

S3: Yeah , I think that's been one of the major barriers. Um , you know , the technology is out there and , you know , there are enough investment dollars out there. But , you know , if you're in , if you're an entrepreneur , if you want to grow this out , you want to make sure you get a return on investment. And having some basic policy assurances really helps. It reduces the uncertainty. So , you know , when California passed legislation based on 2035 , we're going to basically ban all gasoline powered cars , new sales of gasoline powered cars. That really reduces the risks for , you know , entrepreneurs who are looking in this area because we know , you know , people are going to keep driving , they're going to start keep buying cars. Those new cars will be EVs. Then basically , my customer base will be there. So that's definitely going to help spur investment and that's going to help more activity from the entrepreneur side.

S2: But just kind of keeping this discussion on the business model of charging infrastructure is going to be very , very tough from the simple reason that it's much cheaper to drive on on electricity. Electricity is cheap and we are selling very cheap commodity , and the driving per mile or per day will be much lower cost. So , um , we need to be much more innovative. About what ? What do we sell the business model. And we will need some support from the , from the government for , for the long run for that. Mhm.

S1: Mhm. And another thing that I wanted to talk about is , you know , the cost of EVs , which tend to be higher than gasoline powered cars. Is that a barrier for EV adoption. And I think I could say yes on that. But is it really.

S2: It is a barrier for sure. Uh , because we as individuals and. A society we hate is make a large investment now and save over time. Uh , we always have a hard time to make these decisions. Even so , uh , most EV buyers , if they will make the investment , they will save on gas and maintenance and everything that in the end , the long run , it's it's a great decision. But it is a barrier. Price of electric cars is going down. Part of this uh , this narrative of the demand is problem is that the price is going down , but it's actually because we are going to economy of scale and people will be able to buy them on all flavor and all price ranges.

S1: All right. And what about the cost to upkeep these vehicles ? Um , gas powered versus electric. You know , we all are accustomed to kind of pulling it up to a gas station , you know , about what you're going to spend. And it's going to be a lot , especially here in California.

S2: We need to make sure that it will stay this way for today. For example , if you pay more than $0.60 per kilowatt hour , you probably will be better driving a hybrid car. Most of us pay much less than that. Uh , and then we we save quite a lot in.

S3: Terms of the basically the upkeep of an electric vehicle for gas and vehicles. Um , there's been probably some bad publicity recently for EVs. And I think this goes back to what Gil said earlier , it does have to do with the economies of scale right now. Basically , if you have an EV , you know , if it breaks down , it needs repairs. There aren't enough basically certified , you know , mechanics in EVs , you know , people can start certified or repair EVs. As a result. It becomes very expensive. But as you get more EVs out there , you know , you'll have more certified EV technicians out there and the cost will come down. Um , so I think , again , it's a little bit early still , but at some point , you know , if you look at the long run , the cost to keep an EV is much , much cheaper than a Gaussian vehicle. Hmm.

S1: Hmm.

S3: There are federal tax credits of nonrefundable tax credits up to $7,500 for certain types of EVs. Um , there's been changes now because the vehicles does have to have final assembly and basically in North America for it to be eligible. And there are some other there's some income eligibility requirements. The credit comes down to 4000 , I believe , for a used cars. And so this has been I would say , you know , for some of the major car brands out there , this change actually has been very detrimental. It's slowed down their sales. For example , Korean companies like Hyundai and Kia , their main EV lines saw a huge decrease in demand because of the sudden change. So this and also , I think it's going to take time for people to understand these changes , uh , for this year , to understand whether you know how they can get the credit , which cards are eligible , and how this whole mechanism works.

S1:

S2: If you cannot afford a new one , you can get help buying a used one. Uh , disadvantaged communities across the state have , uh , additional incentives. That and price reductions. Uh , so you need a little bit of homework , but it's out there and it can be more than $10,000 if you sum it together.

S3: To add on to this. This is one of one of the barriers for a consumer additional homework or basically additional things that they have to find out on their own , educating themselves. These are another barriers for EPA adoption currently. So it's going to take effort on , you know , dealers or , you know , manufacturers to educate and really get the word out there that it is actually affordable for a lot of families. If they could actually get these benefits.

S1: Right , right. And go through the hoops and hurdles to get the benefits and find out about the benefits. Still ahead.

S3: Transitions happen a lot quicker.

S1: You're listening to Kpbs Midday Edition. You're listening to Midday Edition on Kpbs. I'm Jade Hindman , and I'm speaking today with Jay Kim and Gil Tal about electric vehicles and California's move to a more electric energy future. Neither one of you actually own an electric vehicle.

S3: Even at that time , the options for me were very basically high luxury kind of SUVs that are EVs. So it's basically out of my price range. If I were to buy a car today , it would be an EV. I have a lot more options. And you know , I there's a lot for me to it's within my price range. So you know , unfortunately had I waited maybe a year I would have had more options. So that's really my main reason. The only reason really my next car would be an EV. I just kind of mistimed it last time around. Timing.

S1: Timing. All right.

S2: Even in 2035 , the state will allow 20% of the vehicles to have to be a plug in hybrid. Uh , as a one car household , uh , we like to have this , uh , Swiss Army knife of vehicles. So every day when my wife is commuting with the car , we drive only on electric. And if we are going on a long trip on the weekend , then , uh , the hybrid kicks in and we drive it as a hybrid. So for us , uh , when we bought this car , it was the best option now. And we talked about there is more infrastructure out there , more chargers. We can probably our next one will be a full EV.

S1: Um , so Jay , I want to know when considering electric vehicle affordability , as you touched on previously , how important is it ? Um , how important is having rooftop solar in that.

S3: For the early adopters , most of the EV owners , um , in the early days , had rooftop solar. Today , it's not , as I would say , you know , as important , um , even if you don't have so by when you say rooftop solar , the assumption is that you live in a single family home. You have access to basically , uh , you know , local generation on site. Um , you know , not a lot. Not everyone has that. I call it luxury , but not everyone has , you know , a single family home. So even if you don't live in a single family home , maybe you live in a multi-family dwelling. Um , you know , not having solar shouldn't be a deal breaker in terms of getting an EV , because there is enough charging out there. Because of the changes , all of new housing in California basically are going to have basic EV capability built in. So you should be able to put an EV charger in wherever you want or wherever you need. And you know , more charging will be available for you even if you don't have solar. So I think the economics worked out more favorably if you had solar in the earlier days. These days , I don't think it's a you know , for a lot of people , it's not available. And also it's not a deal breaker if you don't have it. Hmm.

S1: Hmm.

S2: And , uh , there are states that follow in California , so we will keep with the US. But globally , Norway is selling 85% electric for many years now. Uh , Europe is selling more than us. We used to lead the world. Now we're leading only the US. Interesting.

S1: Interesting. Um , you also say that in a perfect world , California's transition to relying more on electricity would happen more slowly than it is. But the realities of climate change necessitate us to really act quickly. Does that give you concern about the ability of the state's infrastructure to handle growing electricity use ? Absolutely.

S2: Uh , my concern is that the timeline it takes us when we need to upgrade for many years , we are selling less electricity every year now. We would like to sell more electricity. We electrifying our transportation system. We electrifying our housing. Uh , and we need to upgrade the grid , the distribution network , the lines that bring it to your home , the generation and everything. Uh , and it's a long process. So it's not just the cost of doing it. It's also the timeline. And I think that we need to keep pushing our decision makers , the political , uh , people in California , the politicians to , uh , make sure that it's happening on time because that's the easiest way for us to curb our greenhouse gases.

S1:

S3: Um , you know , we can set these targets , but , you know , my in an ideal setting , honestly , for me is all of these targets become moot points because adoption happens a lot quicker. Transitions happen a lot quicker. It's really hard to improve things that you can't measure. So if you have tangible targets , it's going to help us get. Right there. Um , and it also , again , I think lowers the risks for entrepreneurs looking at this area. We know we're going to meet some of these targets. So you know there's going to be investment dollars involved. We do need to push ourselves continuously. And I think , you know , unfortunately , Gil said , you know , California used to be the leader in all of these things. Now the rest of the world , a lot of countries are getting ahead. That's a good thing. But , you know , I think we set the tone on a lot of these things in the for the country. So we have to keep leading. Um , and then for California , it's very important that especially for vehicle standards , California is the vehicle standard. Basically all of the rest of the country follows. So we want to make sure that we're always ahead of everybody. And we kind of push , push , push ahead here. Um , that's really the only way to kind of tackle this climate change problem as soon as possible. Mhm.

S1: Mhm.

S2: I can say that we are on a really good path to get to 50 or 60% of the market , but getting to 100 , we need many more chargers for people who cannot charge at home , uh , for apartments and condos and complexes. We will need many more charges. We need many more charges on on the roads to make it easy for us to travel every day and weekends and so on. And then we have a lot of these edge cases. People in rural areas , people in very low income areas , people who drive hundreds of miles a day and so on. It's going to be much harder to electrify those saying all of that. I think that the number one worries that I have is the politicization of of EVs. Climate change is I think we all agree that is a main problem. And we can we can do a change here , and I hope that it will not become a political issue.

S1: And finally , Jay , how is California doing in its climate goals ? This is for for both of you to to answer actually.

S3: I'm an overly optimistic person. I would say most times. Um , you know , overall we're making good progress. We're meeting some of our targets with so far ourselves. And again , this can't happen too quickly in my opinion. We have to push and push. I agree with Gil. This politicization of this issue is very alarming because this is really not a political issue. You know , it's it affects everybody. It doesn't matter where your political affiliations are. So , you know , in California , I think is going to make we've already made a lot of progress , but it's kind of like , you know , the low hanging fruit principle. Right ? We've been able to make huge progress because we're able to accomplish the things that are easy to do first. Now the last ten , 20 , 30 , whatever that may be , those are going to be the harder parts. Do we have the political will and basically the investment ? Are we willing to make the investment to make that happen ? We need to we don't really have time to lose. So , um , as far as I , I think California , we as a population and you know , our if you look at our political institutions , I think we are we are going to be fine.

S1:

S2: I always have a concern we won't be able because it's a very slow process and a lot of moving points. California is doing an amazing job. Uh , we need to remember that light duty vehicles , we are leading that. But we also would like to electrify our heavy duty , our transit system. Uh , keep this momentum with electric cars , with battery electric , uh , and so on. Uh , and this is a tall order , and we we need the political will , and we need to understand that we will have to have some public support , funding and so on for the long run to make it happen.

S1: I've been speaking with Jay Kim , associate professor of industrial and systems engineering at the University of San Diego. Jay , thank you very much. Thank you. And Gill Tol , professor and director of the Electric Vehicle Research Center at UC Davis. Gil , thank you. Thank you.