New study reveals partisan gap in trust in elections widened in 2022

S1: Trust in elections falls along a deep partisan divide.

S2: When people learn more about elections , who's running them ? What steps are taken to protect them , they become more trusting.

S1: I'm Jade Hindman. This is KPBS Midday edition. As people head into the new year , some are heading out of San Diego for good.

S2: So that's Riverside , San Bernardino Counties , L.A. and The O.C. All these places have seen a pretty substantial increase in the number of home seekers , buyers and renters coming from the San Diego area.

S1: Plus , there's a lot happening on the arts scene this weekend.

S2: We'll have a preview.

S1: That's ahead on Midday Edition. The 2022 midterm elections delivered some unexpected results for American voters. While many predicted a resounding GOP victory across both chambers of Congress , the red wave Democrats feared and Republicans cheered for did not come to pass. So how did this most recent election impact overall faith in the electoral process ? According to a new report from the Yankelovich Center at UC San Diego , the partisan gap of trust in U.S. elections has grown even wider. Joining me now with more is that Kaiser , a political science professor and co-director of the Yankelovich Center at UC San Diego. Thad , welcome back to Midday Edition.

S2: Thanks so much for having me , Jed.

S1: Let's start off with the big picture.

S2: Overall , it led Americans to be more likely to trust our election system. So in a question about your overall trust in US elections , about 54% of Americans agreed that they trusted them some or a lot before the election. And in our Yankelovich survey taken after the midterms , that number rose to 61%. But that increase , that restoration trust all came from Democrats and independents. Republicans were unchanged. And and so these divergent trends led to an even bigger partisan divide. When we asked people , do you trust the 2022 midterms reflected their votes , the vote accurately , 85% of Democrats , but only 39% of Republicans said yes. 43% of Republicans said that they thought there was significant fraud. Only 8% of Democrats and a quarter of independents thought that. So there's still these big divides in in who trust American elections. Wow.

S1: And so , as you touched on , Democrats were more than twice as likely as Republicans to view the midterm results as accurate.

S2: Right. Democrats have have talked a lot about the protections that are in elections , whereas Republican leaders really starting with with Donald Trump and you saw it this year with with Kerry Lake in Arizona , have have been making these unsubstantiated allegations of vote fraud. The other thing we know is that winning and losing elections has a huge impact on whether you trust elections. We see this across U.S. history , across all all countries , all democracies. When your side wins , you're more likely to trust. And I think that the fact that the red wave didn't materialize may be playing off some of this roll in in the fact that that Republican trust didn't rebound as much as it did for Democrats and independents.

S1:

S2: And this is an insight that came to us from from the nonpartisan election officials that we partnered with to design this survey. So so before drafting it , we worked with the people running elections in in Texas , Colorado , Georgia and Los Angeles County. Talk to them. They want to know , do people trust their elections ? Do people trust them ? What are they worried about ? And they said , you know , I think people trust us. They just don't trust other states. We found that was true regardless of party. 72% of Americans trust elections in their own state , but only 58% trust elections in other states. And that divides even more stark among Republicans. So it's really the kind of way that people love their member of Congress but hate Congress. People love their elections. They trust their own ballots to be counted. It's other people's ballots and other states that that we need to be sold on.

S1:

S2: So there's like really just a one percentage point difference in trust between the genders at a time when there's a big gender gap and in how people voted in Congress. But but you're absolutely right that there is a difference based on people's race or ethnicity. We found that that whites and Latinos and this was a national sample of over 3000 voters were were less trusting. So only 59% overall trusted that the midterm results accurately reflected the vote. That number was 68% for black Americans , 74% for Asian-Americans. So some of these racial divides that are always prominent in American politics also carry over into the trust and elections. QUESTION When people learn more about elections , who's running them ? What steps are taken to protect them , They become more trusting. We these election officials pointed us towards these videos that they were producing or interviews that that state secretaries of state were doing to explain elections. And so we used a survey experiment where we randomly showed some of our some of our respondents these videos and. And others looked at an unrelated video like Jake from State Farm. And what we found is the people who who watch videos about what how elections are really being run became 2 to 3 percentage points , more likely to trust them. And this effect is true across the board for all parties. So what this shows is , is that there's hope , right ? When when people learn more , they like elections more. And and these nonpartisan messages run by done by the people actually in in the inside of running elections can be effective as an antidote for the distrust we have now in American elections.

S1: I've been speaking with that Couser , co-director of the Yankelovich Center at UC San Diego. Thad , thank you so much for joining us.

S2: Thanks for having me , Jane.

S1: This is. As the year winds down , some San Diegans are packing up and heading out , not for a holiday trip , but for a change of residence. KPBS reporter Jacob Beyer looks at how some people are getting priced out and pushed out of the region.

S3: It's no secret San Diego County is an expensive place to live. But life has gotten extra pricey over the past couple of years , and evictions are stressing out many renters.

S4: We figured when the property was sold , at some point we were going to get a notice to vacate.

S3: And that's exactly what happened to George Rowles. He got that notice just after San Diego's no fault eviction moratorium was lifted in September. He was told to be out of his Hillcrest home two weeks before Christmas. And now his living situation has gotten a lot more expensive.

S4: Than than trying to find something in this market. Coming from where we have been , you know , at a reasonable rent for 15 years and finding something now that my rent is literally being quadrupled.

S3: Situations like that are making many contemplate their future in the region , especially those with lower incomes.

S5: So I'm moving back home to Arkansas. I'm going to be staying with family for a while. I already have a job there. Already got hired at a Starbucks down there.

S3: We talked to Lyla Miller when she was packing up her belongings in Chula Vista. She'd fallen behind on rent and got an eviction notice. The cost of living priced her out of renting elsewhere in San Diego.

S5: Everything else was just too expensive or too far away from where I was working. A lot of them were like 2200 , 20 , 400 , all the way up to like $3,000 an apartment for like a two bedroom , just like this.

S3: University of San Diego economics professor Alan Jin says in a housing market that is both expensive and in short supply.

S6: The expiration of eviction protections is going to make the problem worse. So people at the low end had some protection , but now they could be susceptible then to eviction. And if that's the case , then many of them will have to leave the region.

S3: Jeff Tucker is an economist with Zillow. He says San Diego County got roughly 33% more expensive during the pandemic. It's now the fourth highest priced metro area in the US. Tucker says that's why San Diegans are moving to other counties at a higher rate than in the past.

S2: So that's Riverside , San Bernardino Counties , L.A. and The O.C. All these places have seen a pretty substantial increase in the number of home seekers , both buyers and renters coming from the San Diego area.

S3: The U.S. Census Bureau says last year , San Diego County lost population for the first time in a decade. Tucker says remote work is giving people more flexibility.

S2: This really is a story of people looking to find a place where they can make ends meet , where they can sort of reach their American dream of a place of their own , maybe homeownership and a house that fits their family. And that is increasingly infeasible in San Diego for the middle and working classes.

S3: And those who don't leave San Diego , like George Rolls , are finding other ways to cut back.

S4: We had a decent amount of disposable income , but now most of our money is going to have to go to actually physically living.

S3: Miller says if she didn't move back to Arkansas , she'd likely end up homeless.

S5: I do hope to come back to California. I really do love it here. It's just it's too expensive. I'm I'm working so hard , like I work 12 to 16 hours a day sometimes. And I still can't afford to live here. Even with a roommate in a two bedroom apartment.

S3: Jen sees one clear answer for the long term solution.

S6: And what's really needed is what some people call workforce housing. That is housing then for people who are kind of in the middle. These are good. These are going to be your teachers , going to be your police officers , your your your normal working people who want to live in San Diego and but but can't afford it at this point.

S3: For the short term , renters are hoping for stronger tenant protections. The San Diego City Council will consider an updated tenant protection ordinance early next year. Jacob Baer , KPBS News.

S1: You're listening to KPBS Midday edition. I'm Jade Hindman. For our Weekend arts preview , we have a local jazz trumpet legend , a Kate Bush cover band , contemporary Dance for the Jewish Holidays and Sewing Machines. Joining me with all the details is KPBS arts producer and editor Julia Dixon Evans. Julia , welcome. Hi , Jay. Thanks for having me. So let's start with Kate Bush. Baby Bush is a beloved local cover band known as the Kate Bush Experience of Your Dreams. They perform tonight at the Music Box , right ? Yeah , they do. And they are so much more than just a cover band. This is a band of eight women and just an incredible collection of talent musicianship. There are multiple PhDs in this band and they have amazing harmonies and vocals. Their arrangements of Kate Bush's music , they're really well done , but they also do this full on , choreographed costumed , basically a theatrical production for their shows. It really is an experience and it feels so immersive for the audience. And if we're talking about Kate Bush in 2022 , we have to talk about the Stranger Things phenomenon.

UU: You go and make a phone call. And I just want.

S2: To listen to.

S1: This is Natasha Cazaly about just how wildly famous running up that hill got after season four of Stranger Things. Friends of mine were like , Oh , my God , Like , you guys called it. And I mean , it's not surprising to me that Kate Bush still is this incredible source of inspiration for everyone. And also that she was just on the verge of another massive rise to fame , again , 35 years later. But it's especially not a surprise to the women of baby Bush , who have practically become Kate Bush scholars over the last couple of years. Kate , Bush is such a great storyteller. It's like the soldier. The doctor's experimenting with the relationship and running up that hill that the bush goes. The the bank robber is very just like all these little vignettes of like these human experiences. The show is that Music Box , which is a bigger venue than their usual performances. It's tonight at 9:00. And there will also be a little Kate Bush themed holiday market. They have handmade some ornaments that are Kate Bush themed. We also have a contemporary dance company who have collaborated with klezmer musician and composer Yael Strom for a special production about Jewish holidays. What can you tell us ? Right , So this is Lip Back Dance. They are a local contemporary dance company based in North County , and they'll be performing two shows at the Lawrence Family JCC on Sunday. And Yael Strum is a Jewish ethnomusicologist and he's a performer , and he's composed new music to accompany new choreography from Litvack. And the show is called Light , and it melds together magical realism with Jewish holiday traditions and histories centering on Shabbat. And it's told through the eyes of a woman and her ten year old daughter. The two performances on Sunday differ just a little bit. The 2:00 matinee is part of the Lawrence Family Jewish Community Centers Hanukkah Happenings Program. And I'll have a mixture of recorded music and live music. Whereas the 7:00 show will be set entirely to live music , and it also be followed by a full performance from drums band. All right. And so Loca is a sewing studio in Barrio Logan , and they're hosting their first art show this Saturday. Tell us who the artists are and what the art is about. Right. This is a show focused on the mighty sewing machine and the importance of the production of clothing and garments to our culture. And I couldn't think of a better place for this show about the sewing machine than So Loca. They're a mainstay in not just Barrio Logan , but in the makers and the arts world in town. It was opened in 2013 by Claudia Rodriguez Design Ski , and she will have art in the show as well. Katie Ruiz was a heavier punk in that Roman and more. There's 40 artists in total. And this is on View Saturday from 1 to 9 p.m.. And at 7:00 , they'll have a live sewing performance with Sew Loca along with music. And then our very own KPBS podcast host Parker Addison will also do a spoken word set that's also in the evening portion. And finally , jazz trumpeter Gilbert Castellanos is performing this weekend to celebrate a brand new album. Yes. So Gilbert Cassiano is he is legendary in San Diego. He's been performing for decades. And he started the Young Lions Jazz Conservancy. But a few years ago , he was sidelined due to some pretty serious dental damage from playing trumpet. And he started the string of surgeries to fix it. And coupled with the pandemic where performance has shut down , he has had a rough few years. But he's back. He's performing a lot again. And the thing that strikes me the most about Gilbert Cassiano is how unflinchingly grateful and joyful he is when he talks about being back.

S2: Every time I play , I treat it like it's like my last day living. I treat it like it's like the altar. When I step on that bandstand. I call it the altar of joy because it's a privilege to do what I do. My whole attitude has changed when it comes to music , and who knows if I'll ever get to play music again. And I want to make it count every time I play.

S1: And Cassian also has a new album coming out this weekend. It's called Spare Me and I'll Cielo , which translates to Wait for Me in Heaven. It's an excellent album. There's no originals on it. Even though Carson is is an accomplished composer. This is a collection of these very specific songs that he listened to that that kind of got him through the last few years. This is the music that basically helped him survive. And I'll leave you with the opening track from the album. It's called Billed as Sudan , which starts out kind of slow and somber with all of these fragmented lines. And then it just kind of explodes into this big bop. And Cassiano has two shows this weekend at the San Diego Museum of Art. Saturday's is sold out , but there are still tickets for Sunday night. It starts at eight. But don't miss a pre-show set from Castellanos , beloved Young Lions jazz students. That's at 7:00. All right. And you can find details on these and more arts events or sign up for Julia's. Weekly.

S2: Weekly.

S1: Arts newsletter at KPBS dot org Slash Arts. I've been speaking with KPBS arts producer Julia Dixon Evans. Julia , thanks. Thank you , David. Have a good weekend.