Report: Homicides In Mexico Hit A New Record In 201

Speaker 1: 00:00 The number of homicides in Mexico hit an all time high last year and major drug cartels are diversifying into international criminal enterprises. Those are two of the disturbing findings in the latest justice in Mexico report compiled by researchers at the university of San Diego. The report also finds that the city of Tijuana has the highest number of homicides in Mexico. Joining me is David shirk, co author of the report and director of the justice in Mexico project at the university of San Diego. David, welcome. Thanks so much for having me looking at some of the figures. There were more than 29,000 homicide cases in Mexico last year, more than 34,000 victims. Are these homicides mostly to do with drug cartel violence? Speaker 2: 00:49 It's difficult to say. Um, we know that a significant share are related to, um, organized crime. Uh, it's very difficult to say that what the precise proportion is in part, because there's not really a way to, um, measure what is an organized crime killing. I mean, you find a body on the side of the road, it's got multiple gunshot wounds, it's got a message from, um, the new generation cartel. Um, and you can Mark that one as, as probably related to organized crime, but there's no official accounting of the number of organized crime killing. So, uh, we use estimates that are generated by Mexican newspapers and other sources to try to, uh, roughly guests the approximate number and that ranges, unfortunately between 40 and 60% of homicides. So we don't know if it's most, but it's a big chunk. Speaker 1: 01:40 What was the rate of homicide last year compare with previous Speaker 2: 01:43 Last year's rate was the highest on record that translates into a rate of about 27.4 27.5 per a hundred thousand. The problem of, of course, you know, that's a very high rate, but it's only marginally higher than the year before 2019 was very, very violent. Uh, but 2018 was also very, very violent. Um, and those two years are roughly on par. We can't say that the violence is icing rapidly, but we can't say that it is, it has sort of stabilized at a very high level. Speaker 1: 02:19 Well, when you look specifically at Tijuana on one hand, it recorded the highest number of homicides in all of Mexico, but for the first time in five years, it was not one of the top five cities for assault and robbery cases. What do you think is going on? Speaker 2: 02:34 That's really interesting. And if you look at the data on homicides and assaults specifically in Tijuana, they're almost inversely correlated, which means they're going in opposite directions. As homicides have risen, we've seen the number of assaults go down. And I think a cynical conclusion, uh, looking at those data might be that the people who are trying to kill other people are becoming better shots, right? Um, that effectively, um, they're less likely to injure someone in an attack and more likely to kill them. Uh, and that's, that's partly because of the lethality of, uh, the violence we've, I should say that is an illustration of the lethality of the violence and the fact that so many of these homicides over 90% of them are, uh, committed with high powered, uh, weapons, firearms, including, you know, uh, assault type weapons, especially important from the United States, uh, but, but a whole variety of firearms that are not available for retail purchase in Mexico, uh, and have to be smuggled across the board. Speaker 1: 03:36 Now, one of the statistics in this report that jumped out at me, it was that almost half the women in Mexico reported to have been victims of violence by their partners. Can you tell us more about that? Speaker 2: 03:47 If anything jumped out, uh, as, as distinct about the last year, it is the growing attention to the longstanding problem of violence against women. Um, and this is not violence perpetrated by Chapo Guzman, uh, and, and high profile drug traffickers. Uh, this is widespread, um, sort of societal, uh, violence, uh, targeting women in instances of domestic violence, but also, you know, high profile cases that, that, uh, showed up in the media of women being targeted by boyfriend's former boyfriends by random people, uh, a seven year old girl abducted, uh, in Mexico city and found dead, uh, days later. Uh, but the past year, we've just seen numerous cases of that nature that have drawn public attention and generated enormous public protest in Mexico. It's not clear to me exactly whether the actual number of cases of femicide as it's called or violence targeting women has increased, or whether we're seeing, uh, does greater scrutiny, uh, public scrutiny and also law enforcement scrutiny of those kinds of cases. Um, either way it's a serious problem that, um, that Mexico needs to address. And that unfortunately, uh, the current federal government in Mexico has not really taken very seriously. Speaker 1: 05:14 This year. Mexico has been struggling with the coronavirus pandemic, just like most of the rest of the world. Now isn't there any indication that the virus has made an impact on crime in Mexico Speaker 2: 05:25 So far, we're not seeing reductions in violence. In other words, the, the, uh, criminal groups continue to engage in violent behavior that has led to a sort of steady level of homicides over the last few months. One thing that we think is going on is that the closures in China have led to some supply chain interruptions that have made it more difficult for drug cartels, and that led perhaps to increase fighting among them, uh, for access to and control the movement of, of drugs. Uh, but at the end of the day, all it means is higher prices for drug users in the United States. Um, it does, it has not substantially reduced, uh, demand if anything, uh, people, uh, who, who are addicted to drugs are have more time and more anxiety. Uh, right now Speaker 1: 06:17 Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador was elected in 2018 in the hopes of maybe ending some of this crime, the security problems in Mexico. How would you say he's doing Speaker 2: 06:30 Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador when he came into office, believed that the, the central, uh, the, the roots of Mexico's violent crime really stemmed from broader socioeconomic problems like poverty, inequality, lack of education, unemployment. And he said about trying to generate social welfare policies that would help to address those problems. Um, now even if we assume that he had been totally successful in, uh, that his social welfare policies are designed extremely well and will have a real impact on those socioeconomic problems, which I think is doubtful. Those are longterm ventures, longterm investments that are not going to show up, uh, in a year or two while Lopez Obrador has said, I'm not going to go after the drug cartel leaders, I'm going to leave them alone so that they can stop fighting. He's moved away from that strategy from time to time, he's not being consistent. Um, he lets go Chapo Guzman son, but then, uh, just days ago, uh, he captured a, um, well known, uh, criminal actor from the Santa Rosalia Lima cartel, uh, whose nickname is El mortal. So, you know, the, the Lopez Obrador administration has not identified a strategy stuck by that strategy. And doesn't really have a plan for diminishing violence in the short term. That is the next three to five years. Speaker 1: 07:57 David shirk is coauthor of the report and director of the justice in Mexico project at the university of San Diego. David, thank you. Speaker 2: 08:07 Oh, it was my pleasure. Thank you so much for sharing.