What Can The Fight Against COVID-19 Teach Us About How To Respond To Climate Change?
Speaker 1: 00:00 The unprecedented steps that nations are taking to slow the spread of covert 19 have gotten some scientists thinking. They're wondering if there are lessons to be learned from this emergency that can be used to combat another global emergency. The devastating effects of climate change. One thing the Corona virus outbreak has proven is that societies can make massive readjustments if necessary. The question is, will the slowly unfolding effects of climate change convince us those big readjustments aren't necessary. Johnny me are Sammy Roth, he's an energy reporter with the LA times and Sammy, welcome to the program happened to be here and professor Ralph Keeling, the director of the script CO2 program at the Scripps institution of oceanography. Professor Keeling, welcome. Let me start with you. If I may, professor Keeling, fewer people are driving and flying these days because of Covance 19 has that made any impact on carbon emissions? Certainly has made impact on carbon emissions and my community is working to try to Speaker 2: 01:06 quantify what's actually changed at the level of cities and towns and so forth. And that's, that's a work in progress at the same time, uh, by program. And many others are are tracking carbon dioxide in the remote atmosphere at places like model LOA. And if those places we don't yet see a clear indication of the turndown that we know has happened at the local scale. And I would, I would make an analogy between the present situation and a bathtub. If you're in a bathtub and you turn down the tap, you can look at the tap and know that there's less water flowing in. But it takes a while before you can tell that the level of the tub is filling up more slowly. And so the background atmosphere is more like the tubs. We need a little while to see that it's, it's, it's changing slowly. Speaker 1: 01:53 Sammy, for your article in the LA times, what is it about the response to Corona virus that got you thinking about climate change? What I think that this is something that [inaudible] Speaker 3: 02:02 people who, you know, scientists, activists who are focused on climate change. You're thinking about right now by just by virtue of the fact that Corona virus, like, like climate is this global crisis that's, you know, it's, it's become an emergency. It's something with huge public health impacts. It's something that requires sort of coordinated action at a, at a national and even a global level. So, so those are sort of similarities to climate change. Um, and you know, I, I reached out to quite a few people who are, you know, focused on the climate issue and the response I really got was, yeah, we are, we are think everyone is thinking this through right now and trying to figure out what are the lessons from this crisis and how we're responding to it that might be applicable to the slightly longer term climate crisis. Speaker 1: 02:43 Now you asked to scientists and activists and other experts, water Corona virus like response to climate change would look like overall. Were they encouraged by the kinds of societal readjustments that they saw in nations making for the virus? I think the folks I Speaker 3: 03:00 talked to, they, they want to be encouraged and to be hopeful and, and to sort of look at this as a moment where, you know, despite all of the terrible things that are happening where we're perhaps people might learn to think a little bit differently about the role of science, the rule of government, um, you know, what's possible politically and in their own lives in a way that might be useful for responding to the climate crisis. I mean, things like we're, you know, we're, we're seeing the government, um, you know, injecting trillions of dollars into the economy and, and doing things like evictions on where Tory and not shutting people's water off in order to protect public health and to protect people's livelihoods. Um, we're seeing sort of intergenerational solidarity was, was the term, one of the professors I spoke with you is where we're right now we're seeing young people, you know, sort of changing their lifestyle, staying in doors, and in a lot of ways to protect older generations where in a way with, with climate change you might want to see the, you know, the, the opposite of older generations making lifestyle changes to protect younger generations. Speaker 3: 04:00 So there's, there's at least a hope. I, I sense that, that perhaps the things we're doing now might, might be lessons that we could learn in a way that are useful going forward. Speaker 2: 04:09 And professor Keeling, what's your opinion on what a Corona virus like response to climate change would look like? Well, I mean, one, one thing happening now is that of course people are learning how to live and work with less energy in most cases, certainly less, uh, less traffic and less commuting. And I expect those lessons won't be unlearned when we come out of this. So I, I think the, the most hopeful outcome would be that we come out of this with a slightly different trajectory on energy use that's beneficial in the longterm for climate. I think that's quite possible. I think it's, it's a wake up call as to how we can live differently if we have to. I mean not everyone's going to be able to sustain the, the mode of life right now because of the economic hardship. But we were being educated really rapidly now on, on just how pliable our lives actually can be. Speaker 2: 05:06 To go back to your bathtub analogy, professor, would we have to Mount a response to climate change that actually reduce the amount of water in the bathtub, the amount of co two emissions that have built up over thousands of years? Or would it be aimed at simply reducing what we are putting into the atmosphere? Well, the, the, the climate impacts are felt by the level of water in the tub. So if we want to roll back to yesterday's climate, we will have to reduce the level of water in the tub. No one has really considered that very feasible. And so the most hopeful conversations about the future have focused on reducing the rate at which the tub fills to the point that it stops filling more, um, slowing, slowing the growth rate, the, the, the level of the atmosphere essentially down to zero on some time frame of a few decades. Speaker 2: 05:58 And um, realistically I think that's, that's still what we have to aim for here. I mean when we come out of this, uh, coronavirus crier, crisis fuel, uh, missions will probably recover to some degree. We hope so actually because that's the measure of our economic rebound that we would need that which means we'll be back on a trajectory somewhat like we were before. But I just hope it's a little different and we can see the lever arms to, to, to change it more. I should emphasize that this is a cumulative problem. It's a, it's really a problem that plays out of decades. You can think of the excess co two in the atmosphere as basically humanity's waste dump from burning fossil fuels. And that waste dump is still there. We just have to make sure it doesn't build up as fast Speaker 1: 06:41 any way of getting rid of that waste dump. Speaker 2: 06:44 Well there are technologies that are being explored for scrubbing the atmosphere, but they're expensive. They're not ready to go yet. And most people have looked at it, have concluded that it's actually easier and economically more viable to simply reduce emissions for the near term than try to go into a, an active cleaning of the atmosphere or kind of a geoengineering approach. Speaker 1: 07:05 Now, Sammy, a couple of the people of the scientists and activists you spoke with said the virus is highlighting the importance of science and scientists. Tell us about that. Speaker 3: 07:16 Yeah, it's, it's a pretty straight forward concept. I mean we've had scientists sort of warning us sort of in the background for a long time that Hey, the risk of a global pandemic is, is pretty serious. We ought to take steps now to prepare for this so that if and when it happens and it seems likely to happen that we, you know, aren't in the situation we're in now, which is, you know, potentially millions of, of deaths and sort of having to shut down everything and, and sort of not knowing how we're going to get out of it. Um, and it's, and it's the same in a lot of ways with, with climate change where we've had scientists like professor Keeling sort of through for years and years telling us this is an incredible existential threat we face and we ought to act now in order to prevent it from getting as, as bad as it's going to be. Um, so I think there's, I mean, who knows what's gonna, you know, what's going to happen and whether this is a lesson we heed, but the idea is that we're, we're really learning now what happens when you, when you don't listen to the scientists and you don't take early action to, to prevent what they're telling you is happening. Speaker 1: 08:15 And Sammy, at least one of the people you spoke with mentioned that this crisis might help people better understand that climate change can fuel the spread of disease. How does that work? How does climate change fuel the spread of disease? Speaker 3: 08:29 Lots of interesting connections, but I mean, this one, which, which I'm sure professor Keeling is, is quite familiar with is just this, um, there's a body of scientific research showing that as the planet warms up, uh, you're going to have more places that are harder, that are more hospitable to the types of mosquitoes and other insects that spread diseases like Zika and Deng fever and malaria. Um, so not exactly the same as what's happening now with the pandemic, but definitely a strong between climate and warming and disease Speaker 1: 08:58 professor, is that a conversation that you and your fellow scientists have in terms of the possible connection between, uh, the spread of, of uh, infectious disease and climate change? Speaker 2: 09:08 Yeah, I mean, I've heard studies that suggest that, for example, some cities in the tropics that were situated above the jungles in order to be in a more safe place with respect to malaria. And other diseases are now finding the jungle encroaching upwards as climate warms. So you know, the safety level of a city with respect to disease as a function of its climate. And then if climate is shifting, suddenly you find yourself in a different regime and then of course it, it also applies, you know, not just to disease. It applies to agricultural production. Climate zones are shifting and so food supply is threatened in some cases. Water supply. Yeah, I mean there's a whole spectrum of challenges we face. Speaker 1: 09:48 Let me ask you both this question. Let me start with you professor. There seems that there could be a negative side to the response to Corona virus, the idea of public transit where people are crowded in together or higher density living spaces may not be too popular after this outbreak is over. What do you think? Speaker 2: 10:08 Uh, I guess all I can say is that has occurred to me as well and I will see how it plays out. Uh, I can see some flip sides. I could see that, for example, if San Diego had bike paths everywhere, people could still commute without using energy. And maintain adequate social distancing and not necessarily need to do it in a car. So there are options for, for having win-win. Speaker 1: 10:31 And Sammy, have you heard anything about the possible downside of the response to Corona virus? Speaker 3: 10:37 The biggest downside that that I've heard people discuss, uh, and this, this came up a bit in my, my article is just the idea that we're going to be so focused on responding to coronavirus and having the economy recover after it's over, that nobody's going to want to think you're talking about climate, which, which to me seems like a, you know, a, a serious concern. Um, you know, as to the question about density and, and crowding and public transit, I'm going to take the optimistic answer there and say that perhaps people will be so a star for human contact by the time this is over, that we'll all want to be as close as possible afterwards Speaker 1: 11:09 possible. Yeah. Professor Keeling, do you anticipate that stay at home measures will in some way change the way people live and have an effect on our changing climate? Speaker 2: 11:20 I certainly in small ways, as I said, I think, uh, people are getting a crash course and learning how to work at home, at least those of us who can, and those skills are not going to be lost. So I'm sure some of that will carry over and, and, and probably lead, for example, to the scientific societies deciding they can do more conferencing, uh, remotely rather than flying to places to gather. That was already happening to some degree. And I think it'll get a boost with this. I mean, it's not, it's not the, the news that the travel and to see wants to hear, but I think it's probably the trajectory we'll come out on. Speaker 1: 11:54 I have been speaking with professor Ralph Keeling, he's director of the script CO2 program at the script institution of oceanography and LA times energy reporter Sammy Roth. Thank you both very much. Thank you.
