It's no secret that there's a sunshine tax in San Diego County, but that "tax" has gotten extra pricey over the past couple of years.
On top of that, evictions are stressing out many renters.
“We figured when the property was sold, at some point, we were going to get a notice to vacate,” former Hillcrest resident George Rowles said.
And that's exactly what happened to him. Rowles got a termination of tenancy notice just after San Diego’s no-fault eviction moratorium was lifted in September.
He and the other tenants at the property were told to be out two weeks before Christmas. He's since found a new place in Mission Valley, but his living situation has gotten a lot more expensive.
“Trying to find something in this market, coming from where we have been, at a reasonable rent for 15 years and finding something now; my rent is literally being quadrupled,” Rowles said.
Situations like that are making many contemplate their future in the region, especially those with lower incomes.
“So I'm moving back home to Arkansas," Chula Vista resident Lila Miller said. "I'm going to be staying with family for a while. I already have a job there.”
Miller was packing up her belongings on Dec. 8. She’d fallen behind on rent and got an eviction notice. The cost of living priced her out of renting elsewhere in San Diego.
“Everything else was too expensive or too far away from where I was working,” Miller said about other rental options in the county. “A lot of them were like $2,200, $2,400 all the way up to $3,000 an apartment, for a two-bedroom."
In a housing market that is both expensive and in short supply, the expiration of eviction protections has made the situation worse, University of San Diego economics professor Alan Gin said.
“So people at the low end had some protection, but now they could be susceptible to evictions. So many of them will have to leave the region,” Gin said.
San Diego County got roughly 33% more expensive during the pandemic, Zillow economist Jeff Tucker said. It’s now the fourth highest-priced metro area in the U.S.
Tucker said that’s why San Diegans are moving to other counties at a higher rate than in the past.
“Riverside, San Bernardino counties, LA and the OC — all these places have seen a pretty substantial increase in home seekers, both buyers and renters, coming from the San Diego area,” he said.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, last year San Diego County lost population for the first time in a decade.
While various factors play into population loss, Tucker said remote work could be another part of why people are making the decision to leave the region.
“This really is a story of people looking to find a place where they can make ends meet — where they can sort of reach their American Dream of a place of their own, maybe homeownership, and a house that fits their family," Tucker said. "And that is increasingly infeasible in San Diego for the middle and working classes.”
Those who don't leave San Diego — such as Rowles — are finding other ways to cut back.
“We had a decent amount of disposable income, but now most of our money is going to have to go to actually, physically living,” he said.
In some cases, moving out of the county is necessary to avoid ending up homeless, which Miller has previously experienced.
“I do hope to come back to California. I really do love it here. It's just too expensive,” the 30-year-old said. “I'm working so hard – I work 12 to 16 hours a day sometimes and I still can't afford to live here, even with a roommate in a two-bedroom apartment.”
Gin sees one clear answer for the long-term solution — workforce housing.
“That’s housing for people who are kind of in the middle," he said. "These are going to be your teachers, your police officers, your normal working people who want to live in San Diego but can't afford it at this point."
For the short term, renters are hoping for stronger tenant protections. The San Diego city council will consider an updated tenant protection ordinance early next year.
As for the future of the region’s housing market, Tucker sees it playing out in a couple of ways.
In the near future, he projects home and rental prices to level out and remain stable, but the Zillow economist expects to see them both climb higher within the next couple of years.
“It's hard to picture a scenario where we can really turn back the clock and actually see rents decline substantially or to see prices actually decline substantially," Tucker said. "I think a lot of the demand pressures to live in the region are here to stay."
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Some San Diegans are packing up and heading out for a change of residence, as the cost of living becomes higher. In other news, California regulators approved the most significant overhaul of the state’s solar rules since first subsidizing rooftop solar in 1996. Plus, a new safe haven will house nearly two dozen homeless San Diegans who need the extra help. -
San Diego County and the rest of Southern California are under a new drought emergency announced this week. Local waters officials are encouraging conservation but say our local water supply is stable.
