If you live in the South Bay, odds are you’ve been getting a lot of campaign postcards or political texts this month.
That’s because money from outside groups is flooding into the special election for San Diego County’s District 1 supervisor seat, which represents the county’s southern region. Voting by mail and early in-person voting has already started. Polls will close on Tuesday, April 8.
Independent committees — political spending groups that operate separately from the candidates’ campaigns — have already poured more than $2 million into printing pamphlets, sending out text blasts, canvassing neighborhoods and running digital ads targeting different candidates.
The race is drawing all this attention in part because it will decide whether Democrats or Republicans have a majority on the influential county Board of Supervisors this year. The winner of the District 1 race could determine the outcome of votes on pressing issues, including immigration policy, the cross-border sewage crisis and homelessness.
For decades, Republicans held a majority on the five-seat board. But in 2020, Democrats won a majority on the board for the first time in a generation — a majority they maintained through the November general election, despite conservatives’ efforts to regain control.
That majority control is now up for grabs once again in the special election. Late last year, former District 1 Supervisor Nora Vargas suddenly resigned, citing concerns about her personal safety. Her departure left the board split with two Democrats and two Republicans.
Several other recent elections for county supervisor have seen similar surges in outside spending, including the race to replace former-Supervisor Nathan Fletcher in 2023 and Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer’s bid for reelection this past November.
With less than a week to go before voting ends, spending in this year’s race shows Democratic supporters split between three leading candidates: Imperial Beach Mayor Paloma Aguirre, San Diego City Councilmember Vivian Moreno and Chula Vista City Councilmember Carolina Chavez. Republican supporters have largely fallen in line behind a single candidate: Chula Vista Mayor John McCann.
If one candidate sweeps more than 50% of the vote next week, they will win the election outright. Otherwise, the top two vote-getters will move on to a runoff in July.
The leading Democrats
Outside spending by independent committees is separate from a candidate’s official campaign, and the committees cannot coordinate with the candidates. Committees have fewer restrictions on how much they can receive in donations, and their spending is designated as “in support” or “in opposition” to a specific candidate.
Committees have already spent over $1.6 million — nearly three quarters of all outside money so far — on backing or opposing Aguirre and Moreno, according to a recent analysis of campaign finance filings by the San Diego-based political consulting firm Edgewater Strategies.
Edgewater said they are not involved in the special election, and KPBS independently reviewed their analysis using publicly available campaign finance data.
Aguirre is a longtime champion of environmental issues and a leading voice on the Tijuana River Valley sewage crisis. The Imperial Beach mayor’s supporters include several labor unions and other progressive groups and have already spent more than $400,000 to back her.
But Aguirre’s opponents are outspending her supporters. That includes LIUNA Local 89, the powerful labor union backing Moreno. In total, Aguirre’s opponents have spent over $500,000 against her.
Moreno is a member of the San Diego City Council who represents a number of South Bay neighborhoods and has pushed for building new homes in the area. Her supporters have spent the most among independent committees according to Edgewater’s analysis — nearly $700,000.
Moreno faces far less opposition spending. Her main opponent, one of the major unions supporting Aguirre, has spent less than $20,000 against her.
The other contenders
Several other candidates have also seen significant spending by their opponents and supporters.
Supporters of Carolina Chavez, a Chula Vista city councilmember and another Democrat in the race, have spent a little over $100,000 to back her. Chavez hasn’t faced any opposition spending so far.
John McCann, the mayor of Chula Vista and the most prominent Republican in the race, has drawn more than $400,000 from independent supporters. McCann is backed by several committees, including developers and law enforcement groups.
McCann does face some opposition spending. Moreno’s supporters have spent a little over $30,000 against him. Those Moreno backers have spent a little over $20,000 in support of another Republican in the race, Lincoln Pickard — a move that may be designed to chip away at McCann’s support.
Still, experts said they expect McCann, a longtime political leader in the county’s second-largest city, to bring in a large share of the vote.
“Because McCann’s the only major Republican and has a lot of consolidation behind him, he's almost essentially mathematically guaranteed to make the runoff,” said Mason Herron, political consultant at Edgewater. “The real fight essentially is between the two leading Democrats.”
The votes cast so far
It’s still early to say what all of this spending will mean for the race, but some experts said it could breathe new energy into what is typically a more stagnant election cycle.
Local elections that take place at irregular times and aren’t tied to presidential or congressional races usually draw far fewer voters, according to UCSD political science professor Zoltan Hajnal.
Often, Hajnal said, turnout is lower among working class and younger residents. That means special elections are more representative of white and wealthier voters and tend to be less representative of Latino and Asian voters.
He said lower turnout could also tilt the results in favor of Republican voters.
Early returns published by Edgewater Strategies do show that registered Republican voters have been turning in their ballots at higher rates than registered Democrats so far.
Back in November, parts of the heavily Democratic-leaning South Bay moved further to the right in places like San Ysidro, Nestor, National City and Chula Vista — part of a broader national shift.
Still, Hajnal said, the high stakes of the race and greater mobilization around the candidates could add new urgency to the election and encourage more voters to turn out than usual.
“All that, of course, can have consequences for who wins and who loses,” he said.
