When County Chair Nora Vargas suddenly announced her resignation last month, it set off a race to fill her influential seat on the Board of Supervisors.
The four remaining supervisors voted Tuesday to hold a special election in April to choose her replacement.
While that race will have major implications for county leadership, it’s also upending local politics in the South Bay just weeks into the new year. Already, four elected officials from the region have announced interest in the vacant seat.
They include Imperial Beach Mayor Paloma Aguirre, Chula Vista Councilmember Carolina Chavez, Chula Vista Mayor John McCann and San Diego Councilmember Vivian Moreno.
Regardless of who wins, the election will elevate a new voice to the powerful county board. Whoever takes Vargas’ place will have considerable influence over issues like housing policy, regional transportation and the Tijuana River Valley sewage crisis.
Here’s what to know about the upcoming race.
The candidates
The race could shift the balance of power at the county level. A Democrat would restore the liberal majority the board had while Vargas was in office, but a Republican would move the Board of Supervisors back under GOP control.
Aguirre, a Democrat, has worked relentlessly to spotlight the cross-border sewage crisis and its impacts on communities around the Tijuana River Valley.
McCann, a Republican, is the longest-serving elected leader in Chula Vista and has overseen long-running projects like the bayfront resort and local university programs.
Chavez and Moreno were not immediately available for interviews for this story. Chavez represents the northeast quadrant of Chula Vista, and Moreno’s district includes Barrio Logan, Nestor and San Ysidro.
On Tuesday, the Board of Supervisors voted to hold a special election on April 8. If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, the top two vote-getters in that race will move on to a runoff election in July.
Vargas still has not explained her December resignation, which came just weeks after winning reelection. In a statement announcing the decision, she cited “personal safety and security reasons.”
Upending local leadership
That special election could reshape local leadership in Chula Vista or Imperial Beach.
In Chula Vista, McCann’s departure would be a remarkable change. He is the only Republican member of the Council and has served off and on as an elected leader in the city for nearly 20 years. The other four members of the council have all held office for less than three years, with two of them sworn in for the first time last month.
Both McCann and Chavez have less than two years left before they’re up for reelection. That means their departures could either trigger a lengthy appointment process or lead to a special election.
The potential upheaval comes as the city is preparing to welcome the long-awaited resort and convention center along the city’s bayfront, along with a new film studio and San Diego State University medical programs.
In Imperial Beach and San Diego, voters could see a similar cascade of disruptions with Aguirre or Moreno’s departures triggering local special elections or appointment processes.
The Imperial Beach mayor has also been an outspoken advocate for more research and stronger public health measures around the sewage crisis. Her replacement might have different priorities.
Aguirre acknowledged that the process of replacing Vargas could have broad ripple effects. As a board member on MTS, San Diego's public transit agency, she witnessed the disturbance created after County Supervisor and MTS board chair Nathan Fletcher resigned amid allegations that he sexually assaulted and harassed an employee.
“That's why I led with, ‘it’s unfortunate’,” she said. “Because the ramifications are vast.”
McCann said restoring representation at the county level is the top priority.
“We all have to be flexible,” he said. “Nobody ever thought the county supervisor would be stepping down. I wish her well, but the reality is we need to have leadership.”
The balance of power
The last supervisor to represent the South Bay before Vargas was Republican Greg Cox, who held the seat for a quarter century.
In 2020, Democrats took control of the board for the first time in decades after Vargas and fellow Democrat Terra Lawson-Remer won their races in the South Bay and North County.
Supervisor seats are officially nonpartisan offices, but in reality the board’s direction depends heavily on which party has control.
In December, the Democratic majority strengthened the county’s sanctuary policies at the urging of advocates for immigrant rights. The supervisors voted to limit when county agencies can cooperate with federal immigration authorities.
Another election
The race also comes at the tail end of a heated and tumultuous presidential election year.
The November election included some chaotic local races as well. In Chula Vista, a sitting councilmember resigned in the middle of her own reelection campaign amid charges of grand theft and felony fraud. It took the Council months to fill her seat.
“I think folks are probably feeling exhausted by that process, which I think is actually really understandable,” said Chula Vista community advocate Sebastian Martinez. “You take the time to go out to vote for someone, I think you expect them to finish out the job.”
He wonders whether voters will be excited to see their elected leaders seeking a new job, just weeks into the new year.
Still, other South Bay residents have argued that a special election is the only fair way to decide who should serve out Vargas’ four year-term, which is just beginning.
On Tuesday, the four remaining county supervisors unanimously agreed. They did acknowledge, though, that the county’s last special election in 2023 cost more than $5 million. They warned this year’s race would likely be just as expensive.
“It really is painful to look at the cost of this,” said Supervisor Monica Montgomery Steppe. “But … it is important for those folks to choose who will represent them on this dias and who will make decisions that will impact their quality of life for years to come.”
