Usually, when a politician abruptly resigns, or drops out of a race, with little or no explanation, everyone expects the REAL REASON to arrive soon. It’s like seeing the flash of lightning and then counting until the thunderclap comes.
But the thunder never came, Friday. We got the first burst of light: Nora Vargas announced that, after her successful re-election, which she touted as the most lopsided win in South Bay politics in November, she would not be taking the oath of office or serving her second four-year term. I spent all day on the phone with insiders, colleagues, other journalists and political observers trying to nail down the REAL REASON she was leaving. All of the theories I got came up short.
Let’s go through them:
She’s in trouble: People work too hard for these top elected positions to give them up easily. But the idea that a prosecutor or investigation of some kind is closing in on her does not suffice as an explanation for her abrupt resignation.
Why? Well, most importantly, we do not know of any criminal investigation.
Secondly, it’s a not-unspoken rule of politics that you DO NOT resign your seat if you’re under investigation or in danger of imminent prosecution. You hold on until the absolute end. Often part of a final deal you must make with prosecutors is that you resign your seat. Your seat becomes a source of leverage with the state.
If she were in trouble or facing imminent criminal or civil problems, she gains nothing by resigning now and leaves herself more vulnerable.
Again, though, we can’t find any indication of an investigation.
She’s getting ahead of embarrassing revelations: A lot of people mentioned the lawsuit that the county’s former Registrar of Voters Michael Vu filed against the county. He had been a top executive in the county and had hoped Vargas and her colleagues would consider him for the chief administrative officer role. But as we first revealed a couple months ago, he filed a claim with the county alleging that Vargas specifically decided he was unfit for the top job. He alleges she said they needed a person of color in the role. When it was pointed out he’s of Asian descent, she allegedly said that doesn’t count.
The theory of her resignation is that when this becomes a full lawsuit, the discovery and depositions around it will embarrass Vargas and confirm the accusations.
That does not seem plausible to me. Again, if it’s really serious and embarrassing, she doesn’t gain anything to leave now. She’s faced a lot of heat for her determination last year to hire CAO Ebony Shelton — the labor unions went as far as you can go to take someone down when they came after Vargas after she refused to consider their preferred candidate for the role. Her foes leaked embarrassing text messages — the kind you leak to bring someone down. They said things you can’t take back.
Still, Vargas held firm. No, I don’t see this fight over the CAO bringing her down.
She’s afraid for her safety: This is the only explanation she mentioned. In her statement announcing her resignation, she wrote: “Due to personal safety and security reasons, I will not take the oath of office for a second term.”
She has been chair of the Board of Supervisors and we all assumed she was going to give that role up after two years. But before she did, she ushered through an enhancement of the county and state’s policy to not cooperate with federal immigration agents in deportation actions. As best we could tell, the policy had minimal impacts that the sheriff immediately said she would not abide by.
Predictably, foes branded it an attempt to protect criminals and the policy got national attention and brought national scorn. The supervisors who supported it received vicious feedback.
That’s nothing new, though. They have been getting vicious feedback since the pandemic began. KPBS had an eye-opening investigation recently about just how unhinged public comments had gotten comparing them from before the pandemic to now.
It doesn’t really make sense as a reason to resign now because she ran for re-election in the midst of this experience.
She got a new job: Several people have floated the idea that maybe she got a better job. People referred to the recent news that Jerry Sanders stepped down as the longtime CEO of the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce.
This makes no sense. Vargas isn’t particularly popular in that club. Many others are lobbying tactfully for that job, including the current interim executive, Jessica Anderson. The Chamber’s management board hasn’t even decided who to interview yet and they will be lucky to resolve it all by the end of February. Even if Vargas wanted a role like that and was willing to resign from the Board of Supervisors to get it, she would not resign now.
Maybe she got something else? Why run for re-election? No no, makes no sense.
She doesn’t enjoy it: She may very well have been miserable in the job. As we wrote recently during Beef Week, despite her dominance in her re-election campaign, she has frayed relationships with old allies. Labor unions all but tried to take her down last year. Our Jim Hinch wrote that Vargas blamed “the media” for manufacturing a dispute between her and Imperial Beach Paloma Aguirre and said that, despite Imperial Beach Democrats’ withdrawal of their endorsement of her, “I love them anyway.”
She also notoriously does not get along with County Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer.
Again, though, she got through all of that and won re-election to one of the most prized seats in the county. Supervisors are well paid and have enormous influence.
People have brought up her health and yes she has struggled with vocal cord issues and other concerns but I heard she was recovering well.
What happens now: Dozens of people will want this job. The county will almost certainly hold a special election. The supervisors could appoint a replacement but they are now divided: two Democrats and two Republicans. There’s a chance Supervisor Joel Anderson could join with the two Democrats to pick someone but the array of people interested in it, including a Republican, Chula Vista Mayor John McCann, will mean no consensus candidate can emerge.
Great time to have a South Bay reporter: Follow our reporter Jim Hinch. His Friday story was full of great context.
He wrote that Vargas’ staff members only learned of her plans the moment before we all did. I heard she had been telling other people as much as a couple days ago.
His review of her recent frustrations is strong:
“Though she took office in 2021 with great fanfare as the first Latina on the Board of Supervisors, she proceeded to engage in a series of high-profile disputes with organized labor groups who once supported her and was broadly perceived by residents near the Tijuana River as ineffective in responding to the region’s ongoing sewage crisis.
“Multiple legal claims accused her and members of her staff of making racist comments about prospective employees and engaging in backroom maneuvers to prevent Michael Vu, a longtime county administrator, from landing a coveted role as the county’s chief administrative officer because, according to a claim filed by Vu, Vargas wanted “a Hispanic or Black” candidate instead. Vargas and members of her staff have denied that they discriminated against potential employees.
“This year, the board endured a series of high-profile setbacks under Vargas’ leadership, including the abrupt cancellation of a homeless housing project, delays in establishing an aid center for migrants and the collapse of a proposed collaboration with the University of California, San Diego to establish a hub for mental health treatment.”
The interesting questions for politics going forward: McCann told Hinch he’s definitely maybe running. National City City Councilman Jose Rodriguez told Hinch obviously he and every politician in South County is looking at it. Other names include:
- Paloma Aguirre, National City mayor
- Vivian Moreno, San Diego City Councilmember
- David Alvarez, Assemblymember
- Carolina Chavez, Chula Vista City Councilmember
It would seem like a lock for a Democrat — Vargas won re-election by 24 percentage points over a Republican with no significant campaign. However, special elections always have lower turnouts and if McCann keeps other Republicans out, he could have a solid block of voters going into the election. If the other side splits the vote with multiple high-profile candidates, could McCann get to more than 50 percent in the primary?
It would not be easy. But this is going to be a race with significant impact to all elected offices in South Bay. Stay tuned.
If you have any tips or feedback for the Politics Report, send them to scott.lewis@voiceofsandiego.org.
