Updated September 26, 2024 at 18:45 PM ET
Hurricane Helene has strengthened into an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 storm ahead of its anticipated landfall along Florida’s coast, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.
As of 6:20 p.m. ET, Helene was about 120 miles west of Tampa with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph — the benchmark for Category 4 strength, according to the NHC.
As Helene approaches Florida's northwest coast, forecasters warn communities hundreds of miles away to prepare for its powerful winds and flooding rains.
Forecasters emphasize that the storm is unusually large, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 60 miles from its center and tropical-storm-force winds reaching 345 miles away.
"In fact, comparing the system with previous hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico over the past couple of decades, Helene is at the upper bound in terms of size," the NHC says, adding that preparations to protect life and property should be "rushed to completion."
Tropical storm conditions had reached the Florida Keys and portions of South Florida by late morning, with flooding reported in Naples, Treasure Island, Tampa, Sarasota and St. Petersburg. Some parts of North Carolina have already seen 8 to 12 inches of rainfall associated with the storm since Wednesday morning, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).
The storm is expected to move inland at high speed, bringing strong winds and rain — and with that, the risk of flash flooding, landslides, falling trees and power outages — across the southeastern U.S., as far north as the Appalachians.
There is also a growing risk of tornadoes late Thursday into Friday, especially in northern Florida, southeast Georgia, South Carolina's Midlands and Lowcountry and southern North Carolina.
The storm is forecast to dump 6 to 12 inches of rain over portions of the southeast, with 20 inches possible in some areas.
In a rare news release, federal forecasters note that flooding from extreme rainfall is the deadliest direct cause of tropical cyclone fatalities in the U.S. over the past decade.
They urge residents in the storm's path to heed evacuation orders, plan to protect their families and property and avoid roadways if flooding is in the forecast.
"Take this storm seriously," Deanne Criswell, the administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), told reporters on Thursday. "Please don't underestimate what the impacts could possibly be."
Florida's coast could see a storm surge as high as 20 feet
Hurricane #Helene Advisory 14: Helene is a Very Dangerous and Large Major Hurricane. Damaging Hurricane Winds and Catastrophic Storm Surge Expected to Begin in the Florida Big Bend This Evening. https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) September 26, 2024
Forecasters warn that a "catastrophic and deadly" storm surge is likely along portions of Florida's Big Bend coast.
Forecasters say that if peak surge occurs around the time of high tide, water could reach as high as 10 to 20 feet in certain areas, including Carrabelle and Apalachicola, both in Florida.
"The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves," the NHC warns.
For context, Hurricane Ian in 2022 caused storm surges of up to 18 feet and killed roughly 150 people, most of whom died by drowning.
The NWS in Tallahassee warns of an "unsurvivable" storm surge for Apalachee Bay that could wash away buildings, flood escape routes, damage docks and marinas and strand small craft.
St. Petersburg Mayor Kenneth Welch warned at a Thursday briefing that the area will see an "unprecedented" storm surge of 5 to 8 feet over 12 to 36 hours.
There is also a danger of a "life-threatening" storm surge along the entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula, with over 6 feet forecast from Indian Pass in the panhandle to south of Tampa.
"This is very, very serious," the NWS says.
Dozens of Florida counties are under either mandatory or voluntary evacuation orders. Several counties, including Pinellas and Citrus, have ordered evacuations of nursing and assisted-living facilities.
By midday Thursday, officials in Florida began warning residents that if they had not yet evacuated, they should shelter in place as roads become increasingly dangerous.
Many public school districts and institutions of higher learning, as well as several airports, are closed for at least the day.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has expanded an emergency declaration to cover nearly the entire state — 61 out of 67 counties.
Helene is "a storm stronger than what we have seen in this region, I think, in anyone's memory," he warned at a press briefing on Wednesday.
Florida emergency officials urged residents to evacuate if they live in areas facing possible storm surges or surrounded by big trees that could fall on their houses.
They remind people to remove loose items from outdoor areas, move any electric vehicles to higher ground and never run a generator indoors. They also urged Floridians to expect extended power outages, which utility Florida Power & Light Co. says it's prepositioned to address when it's safe to do so.
Criswell said FEMA has deployed more than 1,110 personnel, including eight search and rescue teams, to Florida since Monday and has staged food, water and generators. The Army Corps of Engineers has also readied power restoration teams and debris removal specialists.
"We are postured for whatever response might be needed," she added.
Once the storm leaves Florida, it's set to weave a destructive path through Georgia, the Carolinas and the Appalachians.
"We're just the opening act," DeSantis said.
States as far north as Virginia are bracing for heavy wind and rain
After Helene makes landfall, it's expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.
"Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians," the NHC says, warning of life-threatening winds over parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia late Thursday.
It forecasts total rainfall amounts of up to 18 inches in the Appalachian region, with major flood risks in the urban areas around Tallahassee, metro Atlanta and western North Carolina, including Asheville.
🌀 Over 12 million people fall within a High Risk of Excessive Rainfall today & tonight. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding from Helene is likely for parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. Most flood fatalities occur in vehicles, turn around don't drown! pic.twitter.com/gN6O23Txfv
— NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) September 26, 2024
According to the NWS, more than 12 million people living within the area are at high risk of excessive rainfall through Thursday evening. The NWS warned against walking or driving onto flooded roads.
Forecasters also warn of "catastrophic and life-threatening" flash and urban flooding across the southern Appalachians through Friday, with river flooding also likely.
"Numerous significant landslides are expected in steep terrain across the southern Appalachians," they say.
The governors of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia have declared states of emergency as the storm bears down.
The Associated Press says that areas 100 miles north of the Florida-Georgia line can expect hurricane conditions. More than half of Georgia's public school districts and several universities canceled classes.
In the metro Atlanta area, under a tropical storm warning, major events have been canceled or delayed, including campaign events by Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance and the final two games of a high-stakes series between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves.
The National Weather Service in Atlanta warns that damaging wind gusts, a high risk of downed trees and power lines, and an increased tornado risk are likely through Friday.
"Please have multiple ways to receive warnings and make sure your phone is not on silent overnight!" it posted on X.
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