TEL AVIV, Israel — The Israeli military has drawn up plans for a major ground invasion into Gaza to fully occupy the territory within a few months and establish military rule there, according to two people who reviewed the war plans.
This comes as Israel has returned to war in Gaza, ending a two-month ceasefire last week and carrying out intensive airstrikes targeting Hamas officials that has driven up the death toll in the territory past 50,000, according to Gaza health officials.
Both people briefed on the plans said they were presented to Israel's Security Cabinet but that it was unclear if and when the plans would be carried out and whether they are a negotiation tactic to pressure Hamas to release more hostages. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the classified plans.
According to one of the people briefed on the plans, Israel would order Gaza's 2.2 million Palestinians into a smaller "humanitarian zone" than the area it has currently designated for civilians. The military is examining options for soldiers to control the distribution of food limited to a minimum caloric amount necessary for survival, the person said.
Occupying Gaza and establishing military rule there would go beyond Israel's stated war goals to end Hamas rule and free hostages captured in the Oct. 7, 2023, attack. The plans were first published Friday by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.
In a statement, the Israeli military told NPR it would "not comment on future operational plans" and that it acts according to the directives of Israel's political leadership.
Separately, Israel's Cabinet said it approved a plan to establish an administration to help Gaza residents emigrate on what it called a voluntary basis, echoing a recent proposal by President Trump.
In Gaza, Issam Zakkout, 62, said the reports about Israel's plans amounted to "psychological warfare."
"Israel comes up with a new plan every day — one day it's displacement, another day it's playing with our minds," Zakkout told NPR. "A person doesn't even know what kind of life he's living in his own country. One day he feels like staying in his home, another day he feels like fleeing from it."
Former defense officials debated whether the military plans were wise
"From the early days of the war, it's been a concern that the lack of a day-after plan — in which all hostages are released, Hamas is removed from power with the support of Arab states, and a credible alternative Palestinian leadership is installed — could lead to a full Israeli reoccupation of Gaza," said Dan Shapiro, who served as U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East during the Biden administration. "It could last for years. It is not an outcome most Israelis want, and it could cost hostages' lives."
Amir Avivi, a former deputy commander of the Israeli military's Gaza division, said the plans should have been implemented earlier in the war.
" You cannot destroy Hamas without controlling the entire Gaza Strip. Eventually you'll have to control everything," Avivi said. "Bringing a collapse of Hamas as a governmental military entity, this can be achieved in a few months."
Kobi Michael, a researcher of Palestinian affairs at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, said the military was gearing up for the conquest of Gaza unless Hamas relented and released hostages.
"In the meantime, pressure is being increased, forces are being gathered, plans are being updated, and efforts are being made to weaken Hamas's resistance and its ability to disrupt a potential ground offensive," Michael said.
Amos Yadlin, former head of Israeli military intelligence, said such a maneuver in Gaza would allow Israel to learn lessons from its previous ground operation, focusing on targeting Hamas tunnels in specific areas and reworking how aid is distributed to civilians.
"This means that this time, operations across the Gaza Strip will take place simultaneously, tunnels will be dealt with differently, and humanitarian aid will be carefully monitored to prevent Hamas from replenishing its stockpiles," Yadlin told NPR. "This phase will include the occupation of parts of the Strip and the establishment of military rule, while maintaining civilian control and distributing food to Gaza residents, who will be concentrated in relatively limited areas. Wherever the (Israeli military) controls the Strip, it would be beneficial for food distribution to be generous."
Israel's defense minister, Israel Katz, issued a different threat Friday: that Israel would permanently annex parts of Gaza if it did not release Israeli hostages.
Michael Milshtein, an Israeli expert in Palestinian affairs and a former military intelligence officer, called it a "worn-out mantra" that would not convince Hamas to change course.
"The growing suspicion is that this serves as a disguise to implement the ideological goal of annexation — an agenda openly declared by senior government officials — under the guise of a 'pragmatic strategic doctrine,' " Milshtein wrote Monday in an op-ed in the Israeli news site Ynet.
The Trump administration's position is unclear
Asked to comment on the Israeli plan, a State Department spokesperson said only that "Hamas could release the hostages, which they they still have and the bodies of those that they've killed, and they could lay down their arms and the suffering would end. All of this would end."
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Israel's prime minister discussed Israel's military operations in Gaza in a phone call Sunday, the State Department said, without providing details.
Trump's Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff said Hamas was engaging in more negotiations, and that the Israeli public did not support Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu's return to war in Gaza.
"I think Bibi feels that he's doing the right thing," Witkoff said in a podcast interview with U.S. commentator Tucker Carlson published Friday. "I think he goes up against public opinion, because mostly, because public opinion there wants those hostages home."
Israel is gradually increasing its military offensive in Gaza
Israel broke the ceasefire with Hamas last week in an effort to pressure the Palestinian militant group to release more hostages under terms that would be more favorable to Israel.
Since then, Israeli airstrikes in Gaza have killed more than 600 Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials. Israel has killed Hamas political figures in targeted strikes.
The Israeli military said its 36th Division, which took part in ground operations in Lebanon in recent months, is preparing for ground operations.
Israeli Army Radio said it was part of efforts to slowly increase ground operations in Gaza in a pressure tactic against Hamas.
Israeli reservists are exhausted from war, and some say they will refuse to serve in Gaza
The plans to conquer Gaza and maintain continued Israeli military control over it may face challenges from Israeli military reservists.
Some reservists have spoken to the Israeli media and written social media posts about their exhaustion after serving hundreds of reserve duty days in Gaza over the past year and a half.
Others said they would refuse to return to reserve service in light of recent moves by Netanyahu and his government to weaken the power of the judiciary and fire two top public servants serving as checks to the government. The moves have sparked massive protests across Israel in the past week.
Israeli military Reserve Maj. Nir Avishai Cohen published a lengthy Facebook post saying he would refuse to continue serving in the reserves. He argued that the Gaza war has turned into a war for the survival of Netanyahu's far-right governing coalition.
"We have reached a point where only refusal and civil disobedience can bring about a change in the current situation and save the country," Cohen wrote. "Each of us must choose which side of history we want to be on. For the sake of Israel, for the future of all people living between the (Mediterranean) Sea and the Jordan (River), now is the time to take action — to refuse."
Alan Dershowitz, an American attorney who has described himself as a friend of Netanyahu, said he opposes the Netanyahu government's latest efforts to overhaul Israel's judiciary.
"It is a stupid thing to do to be prioritizing disputable controversial issues, when Israel is facing external threats that are so serious," said Dershowitz in an interview with Israel Army Radio.
Anas Baba reported from Gaza City. Jawad Rizkallah contributed from Damascus.
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