TEL AVIV, Israel — The Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, which may now be drawing to a close, has dramatically reshaped much of the Middle East and is still delivering aftershocks.
When Hamas launched its surprise attack into southern Israel on the morning of Oct. 7, 2023, it was operating under Middle East rules that had existed for years. On one side was Israel, backed by the U.S. On the other was Iran and its partners — Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria and the Houthis in Yemen.
Both sides believed they could inflict major damage on the other, a proposition that made everyone wary of a major confrontation.
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The past 15 months of fighting have rewritten those rules. Israel has delivered powerful military blows to its rivals, while Iran and its allies have all suffered severe setbacks with no clear path to recovery.
Hamas and Hezbollah have had their leaderships wiped out, and they signed separate ceasefires with Israel from a position of weakness. Syria's longtime dictator, Bashar al-Assad, fled into Russian exile last month. Iran, meanwhile, is trying to make sense of this rapidly changing Middle East, with a supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85 and ailing.
The Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced Wednesday could mark an end to the region's heavy fighting and may deter another large-scale war, at least in the near term. But the battles of the past 15 months have created a litany of woes or made existing problems more difficult to solve.
The damage to Israel's reputation
Israel can claim major military successes, yet the devastation it has inflicted on Gaza has caused immense damage to Israel's reputation. More than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed in the territory, more than half of them women and children, according to Gaza health officials.
The carnage has stoked widespread anger in Arab countries, and that anger extends far beyond the region to many Western countries. Israel relies heavily on the U.S. for military and political support, which will continue under President-elect Donald Trump. But Israel also needs European states for political backing and trade relations to limit its international isolation.
Before the Gaza war, Israel already faced widespread criticism over its heavy-handed occupation of Palestinians. Now Israel faces even greater scrutiny over how it addresses Palestinians in Gaza — and in the occupied West Bank, where Jewish settlements are rapidly expanding.
Will Israel work with the international community to help rebuild Gaza and offer the Palestinians a political path toward statehood?
Or will Israel keep squeezing the Palestinians with punitive steps that have marked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's many years in office?
Throughout his tenure, Netanyahu has pledged to provide security. That promise was undercut by the Hamas attack. Now, with the Gaza war apparently over, Israel is likely to find itself in a stronger security position in the coming years. However, Israel can expect intense political pressure over its policies toward the Palestinians.
Iran's strategy is in tatters
Iran's strategy for decades has been to support a network of Arab partners with the intent of undermining Israel. This approach is now in tatters.
Iran's proxies were overwhelmed in fighting with Israel. Iran itself suffered setbacks in missile exchanges with Israel last year. Military analysts say Iran's air defenses were badly weakened, leaving the country vulnerable to future airstrikes by Israel.
In addition, Iran's fragile economy is hemmed in by Western sanctions, leaving the country in no position to keep going with the kind of military assistance it has been providing to its partners.
Iran will also have to deal with Trump, who takes office on Monday. He imposed a "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran during his first administration and is again expected to pursue hardline policies.
Iran may be forced to make compromises — like scaling back or dropping support for proxies — in exchange for sanctions relief.
Of course, Iran could go in the opposite direction and make a push for a nuclear weapon, viewing that as the best form of defense — a move that would risk generating a showdown with the U.S. and Israel.
Broken lands in urgent need
Several Middle East lands were already in a state of misery before Oct. 7, 2023, and the recent fighting has only added to the desperation.
Much of Gaza has been reduced to rubble. Almost all its 2.2 million residents have been displaced multiple times and no longer have homes to return to. Israel says it will no longer allow the U.N. organization for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, to operate in the territory.
Gaza's crisis is most acute, but Lebanon and Syria also face staggering problems.
Lebanon has endured chronic political and economic woes for years, and Israel's military offensive last fall inflicted major damage in the country's south. In a small ray of hope, Lebanon's parliament recently selected a president, the first time in more than two years the post has been filled.
Syria's nearly 14 years of civil war ended when Assad fled to exile in Russia last month, but piecing together the shattered country will be a massive, long-term project. More than half of Syria's people were driven from their homes during the war.
A ceasefire in Gaza, if it takes hold, would mark the end of 15 months of nonstop upheaval. The changes set in motion will play out for years to come.
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