Like the people of Egypt, the Obama administration has had to wait patiently for events there to reach a climax.
With the first reports Thursday that Hosni Mubarak would step down, President Obama said, "We are witnessing history unfold." On Friday, when Mubarak finally resigned the presidency, Obama could be more definitive: "The people of Egypt have spoken. Their voices have been heard, and Egypt will never be the same."
U.S.-Egyptian relations will also never be the same.
The dramatic developments in Egypt introduce big new policy challenges for the Obama administration.
A Major Balancing Act
Responding to the events in Egypt has not been easy for the administration. On some days, it has seemed slow to react. On other days, like Thursday, it got ahead of events. Critics might say the administration didn't seem to know what was going on in Egypt.
But that perception may be better than the opposite perception that the United States was dictating events.
"One of the things that the United States needs to avoid is the appearance that it is a puppet master manipulating whoever is still in power in Cairo," says Paul Pillar, the former national intelligence officer for the Near East.
At a time like this, U.S. policy is a major balancing act. The United States has several interests at stake in the Middle East, like fighting terrorism and guaranteeing Israel's security.
Pillar, who's now retired from the CIA and teaching at Georgetown University, says in the case of Egypt, the United States in these days has had to stand on the side of democracy.
"But it also has an interest in not angering other regimes in the region with which it extensively cooperates on matters of national security, including counterterrorism," he says.
A Lot Of Change Is Risky
In his statement today, Obama said the United States now expects "nothing less than genuine democracy" in Egypt.
"That means protecting the rights of Egypt's citizens, lifting the emergency law, revising the constitution and other laws to make this change irreversible, and laying out a clear path to elections that are fair and free."
That's a lot of change, and it's risky.
The U.S. has had few closer allies in the Middle East than the Egyptian military. If the Egyptian military goes along with the changes envisioned by President Obama today, the U.S.-Egyptian security bond could be tested.
"A democratic transition would fundamentally affect the military, it would undoubtedly reduce its budget," says Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former Middle East analyst at the State Department and the CIA. "It would put it under the purview of Parliament. The inner circle of Mubarak stands to lose conceivably everything."
Among the groups cheering the ouster of Mubarak on Friday was Hamas, the militant Palestinian movement that controls the Gaza Strip on Egypt's border. The Egyptian military has generally enforced a smuggling ban on that border.
Hamas said Friday it hoped a new Egyptian government would change that policy. In fact, it could, just as it could also curtail intelligence collaboration with the United States.
"There is going to be a fairly rough ride for the United States ahead," Gerecht says. "A democratic Egypt is not going to have the same priorities as Mubarak had, and this may be difficult for the United States."
On the other hand, a U.S.-Egyptian relationship that depended on a corrupt autocratic regime in Cairo may have yielded all the cooperation it could. In endorsing wholeheartedly a democratic transition in Egypt, the Obama administration may be saying that from now on it's entirely in the U.S. interest to have a modern and democratic ally in Cairo.
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