When Border Patrol agents arrested 74 unauthorized immigrants in Bakersfield last week, immigrants throughout the state took notice.
Even though the raid took place in the waning days of the Biden administration, people interpreted it as a sign of what to expect with the return of Donald Trump to the White House.
In San Diego, people posted images of Border Patrol vehicles driving around City Heights on social media. They encouraged followers to “spread the word” and “please stay safe.” And local high school students are organizing protests against immigration enforcement.
It’s unclear whether Trump will be able to fulfill his campaign promise. He’ll need Congress to approve additional funding and hire more personnel. Experts have pointed out a number of logistical challenges including: lack of detention space, the cost of deportation flights and that countries like Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua do not accept deportees.
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But if deportations on a large scale do happen, it’s clear San Diego would be significantly impacted, according to Tom Wong, an associate professor and founding director of the U.S. Immigration Policy Center at UC San Diego.
“San Diego has a lot at stake when it comes to Trump’s promise to mass deport undocumented immigrants,” Wong said.
Wong uses microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau’s annual demographics survey to get a sense of the size and scope of San Diego’s unauthorized immigrant population. The data provides a glimpse of how big the population is, how long they’ve been in the U.S., what kind of industries they work in and how much they contribute to the economy.
Between 150,000 and 170,000 people in San Diego County do not have legal status. And an additional 150,000 people live in mixed-status households — meaning they could be citizens but others in their home are immigrants without legal status.
That’s 300,000 people — or roughly the population of Chula Vista — who could be directly impacted by deportations.
And many of these people have deep roots in San Diego, Wong said.
One out of every six of unauthorized immigrants have lived in the United States 10 years or longer, according to his research. And one out of every three have been here 20 years or longer.
KPBS asked Customs and Border Protection whether the agency has conducted any enforcement operations in San Diego similar to the ones in Bakersfield. In a statement, a spokesperson did not directly answer the question.
“The U.S. Border Patrol conducts targeted enforcement arrests of individuals involved in smuggling throughout our areas of operation as part of our efforts to dismantle transnational criminal organizations,” the statement said.
Economic impact
Approximately 1.8 million people without legal status live in California. Collectively, they contribute more than $3.5 billion in state and local taxes each year, according to research from UC Merced’s Community and Labor Center.
Those billions are raised from a combination of property, income and sales taxes, said Ed Flores, faculty director of the Community and Labor Center.
“They are consumers,” Flores said. “They live here and shop at local stores, meaning that they make contributions to local tax revenues.”
In California, immigrants without legal status are eligible for benefit programs like in-state tuition and financial aid, emergency Medi-Cal health coverage and CalFresh food assistance for their children.
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But they are not eligible for federally-funded benefits like Supplemental Security Income (SSI), Social Security, or food stamps — even though they contribute taxes toward those programs, Flores said.
“Undocumented immigrants are, through their tax dollars, contributing to a government that isn’t providing them a social safety net,” he said. “But they are subsidizing that safety net for the rest of us.”
San Diego’s tourism has broken records in recent years for economic impact. It was more than $22 billion in the 2024 fiscal year alone, according to the San Diego Tourism Authority.
Given that industry’s importance to San Diego’s economy, mass deportations could be particularly problematic, Wong said. He points to the fact that one out of every five unauthorized immigrants in San Diego County work in the food and service industry.
“San Diego thrives on tourism and the backbone of the tourism industry is service,” Wong said. “Policy promises like mass deportation would significancy impact San Diego economically and devastate our tourism industry.”
