No matter who wins Mexico’s presidential election in June, history will be made.
“We are going to have a woman in the Mexican presidency,” said Rafael Fernandez de Castro, director of the Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies at UC San Diego. “This is going to be the first woman governing in North America. Not Canada, not the U.S. But Mexico first.”
The two leading candidates to serve one six-year term are Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchtil Gálvez.
Whether Mexico’s next president is Sheinbaum or Gálvez, she will also have a big influence on the Tijuana-San Diego border region. Her policies will impact everything from crime and immigration to the cross-border economy and environment.
KPBS interviewed experts on both sides of the border to get a sense of what Mexico’s presidential election on June 2 means to the region.
One thing they made clear is San Diegans need to pay attention.
“As an American, you need to be aware of what’s going on in Mexico,” said Saúl Sandoval, a professor of economics at CETYS University in Tijuana.
Mexico is the U.S.'s top trading partner and plays a key role in the supply chain. So, Sandoval said, any policies that impact production, trade or transportation could increase or lower prices in the U.S.
Meet the candidates
Sheinbaum previously served as mayor of Mexico City. She is a close ally of current Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. She is running with the popular Morena Party that López Obrador founded.
“Her slogan is continuity in terms of López Obrador’s policies,” said Sandoval.
Gálvez, meanwhile, represents a coalition of three different political parties that have joined forces to defeat Morena. She is campaigning as an entrepreneur who pulled herself up by her bootstraps.
“The story she tells is that she was very poor when she was little and began selling stuff in the streets until she went to Mexico City and began her engineering career,” Sandoval said.
The experts largely frame the campaign as a contest between a big government and the free market.
“Among the business community, the discussion is about either centralized government or decentralized government, more structure or more flexibility,” said Flavio Olivieri, director of the Center of Excellence in Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship at CETYS University.
López Obrador’s social programs, which include expanding retirement benefits and providing impoverished Mexicans with direct cash payments, have made him very popular. Sheinbaum is hoping to leverage his 60% approval rating to win the election.
Mexicans have suffered through a dramatic nationwide increase in crime and extortion since López Obrador was elected in 2018.
“One of the main concerns is the rising insecurity and the rising crime rates,” Olivieri said.
Gálvez has worked during the campaign to put Sheinbaum’s connection to López Obrador in a negative light. She attacks his poor record on crime while voicing support for investments in education, the healthcare system and expanding opportunities for entrepreneurs.
Better cross-border relations
Compared to López Obrador, experts believe either candidate will have a friendlier relationship with the United States.
Throughout his presidency, López Obrador has favored domestic issues at the expense of foreign policy. He does not speak English and has been a consistent no-show at binational meetings like the Summit of the Americas.
“I think both candidates have a very clear understanding that the economic wellbeing of this region is strictly tied to the cross-border economy,” Olivieri said. “Our relationship to the United States is fundamental.”
Cross-border trade between San Diego and Tijuana is more than $4 billion a year, according to the Smart Border Coalition.
While both candidates recognize the economic opportunity of the border region, they have different ideas on how to maximize those opportunities.
Fenández de Castro says Gálvez is more of a globalist, which is in direct contrast with Lopez Obrador’s isolationism.
“If Xóchitl wins the presidency, you’ll expect more neoliberal policies and a very open Mexico,” said Fernández de Castro.
Gálvez has campaigned on her background as an engineer and wants to attract tech businesses that bring high-paying jobs to the region.
Some of her policies may include economic incentives for tech companies to set up research facilities in Baja California. Another example could be tax breaks for entrepreneurs to start businesses in the region, Sandoval said.
He added that approximately 40% of businesses in Mexico are considered informal because they are unlicensed. They include unregulated street vendors or people who sell wares in swap meets. Gálvez has voiced support for formalizing all of those small businesses.
“That’s a good idea, you need to make it easier for employers to move into the formal market,” Sandoval said.
Sheinbaum has visited Tijuana multiple times during the campaign. And she has a personal connection to California — she completed a PhD in energy engineering at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in the 1990s.
Given her support of López Obrador’s social welfare policies, experts believe Sheinbuam’s approach will prioritize workers.
“It’s more labor-focused,” Olivieri said. “More on labor rights, increasing minimum wage.”
Experts point out that Mexico’s federal government recently invested millions of dollars in border infrastructure projects aimed at reducing border wait times and cross-border sewage pollution.
Those projects include the opening of a new border crossing in Otay Mesa and repairs to a wastewater treatment plant south of Tijuana. The latter is being done by the Mexican military.
A Sheinbaum presidency could bring more federal dollars to the borderlands, particularly because the governor of Baja California is part of the same Morena Party.
“We may expect to see improvements in infrastructure and the state of Baja California’s economy,” said Sandoval.
Local leadership
Experts also agreed that governors, mayors and other local elected officials need to play a larger role in border policies.
That’s because, historically speaking, the capitals of Mexico and the U.S. have not paid close attention to border issues aside from migration.
“The problem is that Mexico City and Washington D.C. are very far away from the border,” Fernández said. “Not only that, but with the political polarization both in Washington and Mexico City, I don’t see them putting that much attention to these border areas.”
Given this dynamic, Fernández believes, elected officials in San Diego and Tijuana need to take more of a leadership role.
“We really need to get a sense of agency and do things for ourselves,” he said.
