Based on current land use plans, the county of San Diego will fall 70,000 housing units short of demand by 2050, according to a study presented today to the Board of Supervisors.
Based on current land use plans, the county of San Diego will fall 70,000 housing units short of demand by 2050, according to a study presented today to the Board of Supervisors.
The county population will increase from 3.1 million to 4.4 million by 2050, said Beth Jarosz, a demographer with the San Diego Association of Governments.
Such growth will require 500,000 more jobs and 450,000 more housing units, Jarosz said.
However, only 380,000 additional housing units appear possible under current guidelines, she said.
SANDAG officials are working with local jurisdictions to address the shortfall, and most general plans only cover the next 20 years, according to Jarosz.
``Most of the growth will come from people here today,'' Jarosz said, referring to current residents having babies and living longer. Domestic migration is expected to be flat and immigrants from other nations are expected to arrive at a pace of 12,000 to 16,000 annually, she said.
``Unless you're going to go out and campaign against people having babies in San Diego in the future, we're going to have to solve this problem,'' Supervisor Ron Roberts said.
The supervisors said future growth prospects will be constrained by a finite available water supply. Supervisor Bill Horn pointed out that transportation funding has been cut sharply by Sacramento and is likely to be limited for at least the next five years.
The board voted unanimously to work with SANDAG on its 2050 2050 Regional Growth Forecast, which is expected to be complete next February.
